J6 - Mobility, Unemployment, and Vacancies

• Immigration and US Shelter Prices: The Role of Geographical and Immigrant Heterogeneity

  Staff Working Paper 2024-40 James Cabral, Walter Steingress

  The arrival of immigrants increases demand for housing and puts upward pressure on shelter prices. Using instrumental variables based on the ancestry composition of residents in US counties, we estimate the causal impact of immigration on local shelter prices.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Housing, Inflation and prices, International topics, Regional economic developments JEL Code(s): J, J6, J61, R, R2, R23, R3, R31

• From Micro to Macro Hysteresis: Long-Run Effects of Monetary Policy

  Staff Working Paper 2024-39 Felipe Alves, Giovanni L. Violante

  We explore the long-run effects of a monetary policy shock in a Heterogeneous Agent New Keynesian model built on the micro evidence that job losses lead to persistently lower individual earnings through a combination of skill decay and abandonment of the labour force.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Labour markets, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E2, E21, E24, E3, E31, E32, E5, E52, J, J2, J24, J6, J64

• Benchmarks for assessing labour market health: 2024 update

  Staff Analytical Note 2024-8 Erik Ens, Alexander Lam, Kurt See, Gabriela Galassi

  We assess the health of the Canadian labour market. We find that it has seen gradual but material easing since 2023, amid some signs of structural changes.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, Labour markets, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E2, J, J2, J3, J6

• Third-Country Effects of U.S. Immigration Policy

  Staff Working Paper 2023-60 Agostina Brinatti, Xing Guo

  We study how the tightening of US immigration policy affects the Canadian economy and American workers. After the reduction in H-1B visa admissions in 2017, more immigrants came to Canada, and Canadian firms expanded their employment, sales and exports. The close trade link between the United States and Canada dampens the benefit American workers derive from this policy change.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): International topics, Labour markets, Recent economic and financial developments, Trade integration JEL Code(s): F, F1, F16, F2, F22, J, J6, J61

• Immigration and Provision of Public Goods: Evidence at the Local Level in the U.S.

  Staff Working Paper 2023-57 Anna Maria Mayda, Mine Z. Senses, Walter Steingress

  Using U.S. county-level data from 1990 to 2010, we study the causal impact of immigration on the provision of local public goods. We uncover substantial heterogeneity across immigrants with different skills and immigrants of different generations, which leads to unequal fiscal effects across U.S. counties.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Fiscal policy, International topics, Regional economic developments JEL Code(s): F, F2, F22, H, H4, H41, H7, J, J6, J61, J68, R, R5

• The Heterogeneous Impacts of Job Displacement: Evidence from Canadian Job Separation Records

  Staff Working Paper 2023-55 Serdar Birinci, Youngmin Park, Kurt See

  When estimating earnings losses upon job separation, existing strategies focus on separations in mass layoffs to distinguish involuntary separations from voluntary separations. We revisit the measurement of the sources and consequences of job displacement using Canadian job separation records.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Labour markets, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, E3, E32, J, J3, J31, J6, J63, J65

• Labor Market Shocks and Monetary Policy

  Staff Working Paper 2023-52 Serdar Birinci, Fatih Karahan, Yusuf Mercan, Kurt See

  We develop a heterogeneous-agent New Keynesian model featuring a frictional labor market with on-the-job search to quantitatively study the positive and normative implications of employer-to-employer transitions for inflation.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Inflation and prices, Labour markets, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E1, E12, E2, E24, E5, E52, J, J3, J31, J6, J62, J64

• Benchmarks for assessing labour market health: 2023 update

  Staff Analytical Note 2023-7 Erik Ens, Kurt See, Corinne Luu

  We enhance benchmarks for assessing strength in the Canadian labour market. We find the labour market remains tight despite recent strong increases in labour supply, including among prime-working-age women. We also assess the anticipated easing in labour conditions in a context of high population growth.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Econometric and statistical methods, Labour markets, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, J, J2, J21, J6

• Demographic Origins of the Decline in Labor’s Share

  Staff Working Paper 2023-20 Andrew Glover, Jacob Short

  Declining labour market dynamism of workers results in an increasing wedge between their earnings and their marginal product as they age. This wedge and the demographic shift in the earnings shares of older workers can account for 59% of the decline in labor’s share of earnings in the United States.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Labour markets, Productivity JEL Code(s): D, D3, D33, E, E2, E25, J, J1, J3, J6, J62

• Canada’s Beveridge curve and the outlook for the labour market

  Staff Analytical Note 2022-18 Alexander Lam

  Canada’s labour market is tight but beginning to ease. Unemployment will likely rise in turn, but the economy can avoid a recessionary surge given current conditions. Higher unemployment would nonetheless be material, especially for those directly impacted.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Central bank research, Labour markets, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, J, J2, J20, J6, J63, J64