F4 - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

• November 16, 2017

  An Update on the Neutral Rate of Interest

  Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2017 José Dorich, Abeer Reza, Subrata Sarker

  The neutral rate serves as a benchmark for measuring monetary stimulus and provides a medium- to long-run anchor for the real policy rate. Global neutral rate estimates have been falling over the past few decades. Factors such as population aging, high corporate savings, and low trend productivity growth are likely to continue supporting a low global neutral rate. These global factors as well as domestic factors are exerting downward pres-sure on the Canadian real neutral rate, which is estimated to be between 0.5 to 1.5 per cent. This low neutral rate has important implications for monetary policy and financial stability.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Interest rates, International topics, Potential output, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, E5, E52, E58, F, F0, F01, F4, F43, O, O4

• Understanding the Time Variation in Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Import Prices

  Staff Discussion Paper 2017-12 Rose Cunningham, Min Jae Kim, Christian Friedrich, Kristina Hess

  In this paper, we analyze the presence of time variation in the pass-through from the nominal effective exchange rate to import prices for 24 advanced economies over the period 1995–2015. In line with earlier studies in the literature, we find substantial heterogeneity in the level of exchange rate pass-through across countries.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Exchange rates, Inflation and prices, International topics, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, F, F3, F31, F4, F41

• Policy Rules for Capital Controls

  Staff Working Paper 2017-42 Gurnain Pasricha

  This paper attempts to borrow the tradition of estimating policy reaction functions in monetary policy literature and apply it to capital controls policy literature. Using a novel weekly dataset on capital controls policy actions in 21 emerging economies over the period 1 January 2001 to 31 December 2015, I examine the mercantilist and macroprudential motivations for capital control policies.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Exchange rate regimes, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F3, F4, F5, G, G0, G1

• Global Trade Flows: Revisiting the Exchange Rate Elasticities

  Staff Working Paper 2017-41 Matthieu Bussière, Guillaume Gaulier, Walter Steingress

  This paper contributes to the debate on the magnitude of exchange rate elasticities by providing a set of price and quantity elasticities for 51 advanced and emerging-market economies. Specifically, for each of these countries we report the elasticity of trade prices and trade quantities on both the export and on the import sides, as well as the reaction of the trade balance.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Exchange rates, Inflation and prices, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C5, C51, F, F1, F14, F3, F31, F33, F4, F41

• Understanding the Cross‐Country Effects of US Technology Shocks

  Staff Working Paper 2017-23 Thuy Lan Nguyen, Wataru Miyamoto

  Business cycles are substantially correlated across countries. Yet most existing models are not able to generate substantial transmission through international trade. We show that the nature of such transmission depends fundamentally on the features determining the responsiveness of labor supply and labor demand to international relative prices.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E3, E30, F, F4, F41, F44, F6, F62
• June 8, 2017

  Canada’s International Investment Position: Benefits and Potential Vulnerabilities

  Financial System Review - June 2017 Gabriel Bruneau, Maxime Leboeuf, Guillaume Nolin

  While greater global financial integration is beneficial, the authors discuss how foreign capital inflows can also facilitate the buildup of domestic vulnerabilities and potentially lead to destabilizing reversals. Canada’s current international investment position is typical of advanced economies and will likely continue to act as an economic stabilizer. However, the growth and composition of Canada’s international investment position warrant continued monitoring.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles Topic(s): Balance of payments and components, Financial stability, International financial markets JEL Code(s): F, F2, F21, F3, F32, F34, F36, F4, F6

• The Welfare Effects of Protection: A General Equilibrium Analysis of Canada’s National Policy

  Staff Working Paper 2017-18 Patrick Alexander, Ian Keay

  In this paper, we study the impact of Canada’s adoption of protectionist trade policy in 1879 on Canadian welfare. Under the National Policy the Canadian average weighted tariff increased from 14% to 21%. The conventional view is that this was a distortionary policy that negatively affected Canadian welfare.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models, International topics, Trade integration JEL Code(s): F, F1, F13, F14, F4, F42, F6, F60, N, N7, N71

• Global Real Activity for Canadian Exports: GRACE

  Staff Discussion Paper 2017-2 André Binette, Tony Chernis, Daniel de Munnik

  Canadian exports have often disappointed since the Great Recession. The apparent disconnect between exports and the Bank of Canada’s current measure of foreign demand has created an impetus to search for an alternative.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Balance of payments and components, Econometric and statistical methods, Exchange rates JEL Code(s): F, F1, F10, F14, F4, F43

• Terms-of-Trade and House Price Fluctuations: A Cross-Country Study

  Staff Working Paper 2017-1 Paul Corrigan

  Terms-of-trade shocks are known to be key drivers of business cycles in open economies. This paper argues that terms-of-trade shocks were also important for house price fluctuations in a panel of developed countries over the 1994–2015 period.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial stability, Housing, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, E, E3, E32, E5, E51, F, F3, F36, F4, F41