F17 - Trade Forecasting and Simulation

• Weakness in Non-Commodity Exports: Demand versus Supply Factors

  Staff Analytical Note 2018-28 José Dorich, Vadym Lepetyuk, Jonathan Swarbrick

  We use the Terms-of-Trade Economic Model (ToTEM) to conduct demand- and supply-driven simulations, both of which deliver weakness in Canadian non-commodity exports relative to foreign activity in line with recent data.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): International topics, Monetary policy, Recent economic and financial developments, Trade integration JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, F, F1, F10, F14, F17

• What Is Restraining Non-Energy Export Growth?

  Staff Analytical Note 2018-25 Dany Brouillette, José Dorich, Chris D'Souza, Adrienne Gagnon, Claudia Godbout

  This note summarizes the key findings from Bank of Canada staff analytical work examining the reasons for the recent weakness in Canadian non-energy exports. Canada steadily lost market share in US non-energy imports between 2002 and 2017, mostly reflecting continued and broad-based competitiveness losses.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): International topics, Monetary policy, Recent economic and financial developments, Trade integration JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, F, F1, F10, F14, F17

• Product Sophistication and the Slowdown in Chinese Export Growth

  Staff Discussion Paper 2017-15 Mark Kruger, Walter Steingress, Sri Thanabalasingam

  Chinese real export growth decelerated considerably during the last decade. This paper argues that the slowdown largely resulted from China moving to a more sophisticated mix of exports: China produced more sophisticated goods over which it had pricing power instead of producing greater volumes of less sophisticated products.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Development economics, Exchange rates, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F1, F14, F17, O, O1, O10

• An Improved Equation for Predicting Canadian Non-Commodity Exports

  Staff Discussion Paper 2017-1 Patrick Alexander, Jean-Philippe Cayen, Alex Proulx

  We estimate two new equations for Canadian non-commodity exports (NCX) that incorporate three important changes relative to the current equation used at the Bank of Canada.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Balance of payments and components, Exchange rates, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F1, F10, F14, F17

• Analyzing and Forecasting the Canadian Economy through the LENS Model

  Technical Report No. 102 Olivier Gervais, Marc-André Gosselin

  The authors describe the key features of a new large-scale Canadian macroeconomic forecasting model developed over the past two years at the Bank of Canada.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Economic models JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, E, E1, E17, E2, E27, E3, E37, F, F1, F17

• A Foreign Activity Measure for Predicting Canadian Exports

  Staff Discussion Paper 2012-1 Louis Morel

  The author constructs a measure of foreign activity that takes into account the composition of foreign demand for Canadian exports. It has a number of interesting features.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Balance of payments and components, Exchange rates, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): E, E0, E00, F, F1, F17

• MUSE: The Bank of Canada's New Projection Model of the U.S. Economy

  Technical Report No. 96 Marc-André Gosselin, René Lalonde

  The analysis and forecasting of developments in the U.S. economy have always played a critical role in the formulation of Canadian economic and financial policy. Thus, the Bank places considerable importance on generating internal forecasts of U.S. economic activity as an input to the Canadian projection.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, E, E1, E17, E2, E27, E3, E37, F, F1, F17