E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics

• How to Manage Macroeconomic and Financial Stability Risks: A New Framework

  Staff Analytical Note 2018-11 Alexander Ueberfeldt, Thibaut Duprey

  Financial system vulnerabilities increase the downside risk to future GDP growth. Macroprudential tightening significantly reduces financial stability risks associated with vulnerabilities. Monetary policy faces a trade-off between financial stability and macroeconomic risks.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Central bank research, Economic models, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, Interest rates, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, E5, E52, E58, G, G0, G01

• A Policy Framework for E-Money: A Report on Bank of Canada Research

  Staff Discussion Paper 2018-5 Mohammad Davoodalhosseini, Francisco Rivadeneyra

  We present a policy framework for electronic money and payments. The framework poses a set of positive questions related to the areas of responsibility of central banks: payments systems, monetary policy and financial stability. The questions are posed to four broad forms of e-money: privately or publicly issued, and with centralized or decentralized verification of transactions. This framework is intended to help evaluate the trade-offs that central banks face in the decision to issue new forms of e-money.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Digital currencies and fintech, Monetary policy, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): E, E4, E41, E5, E51, E52, E58

• Potential Output in Canada: 2018 Reassessment

  Staff Analytical Note 2018-10 Andrew Agopsowicz, Dany Brouillette, Bassirou Gueye, Julien McDonald-Guimond, Jeffrey Mollins, Youngmin Park

  This note summarizes the reassessment of potential output, conducted by the Bank of Canada for the April 2018 Monetary Policy Report. Overall, the profile for potential output growth is expected to remain flat at 1.8 per cent between 2018 and 2020 and 1.9 per cent in 2021.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Labour markets, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E0, E00, E2, E22, E23, E24, E3, E37, E6

• Assessing Global Potential Output Growth: April 2018

  Staff Analytical Note 2018-9 Richard Beard, Anne-Katherine Cormier, Michael Francis, Katerina Gribbin, Justin-Damien Guénette, Christopher Hajzler, James Ketcheson, Kun Mo, Louis Poirier, Peter Selcuk, Kristina Hess

  This note presents our estimates of potential output growth for the global economy through 2020. Overall, we expect global potential output growth to remain broadly stable over the projection horizon, averaging 3.3 per cent, although there is considerable uncertainty surrounding these estimates.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): International topics, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E1, E10, E2, E20, O, O4

• Could a Higher Inflation Target Enhance Macroeconomic Stability?

  Staff Working Paper 2018-17 José Dorich, Nicholas Labelle, Vadym Lepetyuk, Rhys R. Mendes

  Recent international experience with the effective lower bound on nominal interest rates has rekindled interest in the benefits of inflation targets above 2 per cent. We evaluate whether an increase in the inflation target to 3 or 4 per cent could improve macroeconomic stability in the Canadian economy.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models, Inflation targets, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E37, E4, E43, E5, E52