C38 - Classification Methods; Cluster Analysis; Factor Models

• The Real-Time Properties of the Bank of Canada’s Staff Output Gap Estimates

  Staff Working Paper 2016-28 Julien Champagne, Guillaume Poulin-Bellisle, Rodrigo Sekkel

  We study the revision properties of the Bank of Canada’s staff output gap estimates since the mid-1980s. Our results suggest that the average staff output gap revision has decreased significantly over the past 15 years, in line with recent evidence for the U.S.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Central bank research, Econometric and statistical methods, Potential output JEL Code(s): C, C3, C38, E, E1, E17, E3, E32

• Macroeconomic Uncertainty Through the Lens of Professional Forecasters

  Staff Working Paper 2016-5 Soojin Jo, Rodrigo Sekkel

  We analyze the evolution of macroeconomic uncertainty in the United States, based on the forecast errors of consensus survey forecasts of different economic indicators. Comprehensive information contained in the survey forecasts enables us to capture a real-time subjective measure of uncertainty in a simple framework.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C3, C38, E, E1, E17, E3, E32