C14 - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
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Predicting Financial Stress Events: A Signal Extraction Approach
The objective of this paper is to propose an early warning system that can predict the likelihood of the occurrence of financial stress events within a given period of time. To achieve this goal, the signal extraction approach proposed by Kaminsky, Lizondo and Reinhart (1998) is used to monitor the evolution of a number of economic indicators that tend to exhibit an unusual behaviour in the periods preceding a financial stress event. -
Sheep in Wolf’s Clothing: Using the Least Squares Criterion for Quantile Estimation
Estimation of the quantile model, especially with a large data set, can be computationally burdensome. This paper proposes using the Gaussian approximation, also known as quantile coupling, to estimate a quantile model.