Staff research
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Seasonal Adjustment of Weekly Data
The industry standard for seasonally adjusting data, X-13ARIMA-SEATS, is not suitable for high-frequency data. We summarize and assess several of the most popular seasonal adjustment methods for weekly data given the increased availability and promise of non-traditional data at higher frequencies. -
How Do Households Respond to Expected Inflation? An Investigation of Transmission Mechanisms
We conduct surveys to study how consumer spending responds to higher inflation expectations. Most respondents spend the same, sticking to fixed budget plans or not considering inflation for spending decisions. About 20% decrease spending because they feel poorer and cut spending to invest in inflation-proof assets. Very few increase spending. -
Gender Gaps in Time Use and Entrepreneurship
The prevalence of entrepreneurs, particularly low-productivity non-employers, declines as economies develop. This decline is more pronounced for women. Relative to men, women are more likely to be entrepreneurs in poor economies but less likely in rich economies. -
Mortgage stress tests and household financial resilience under monetary policy tightening
This note analyzes mortgage stress tests, a macroprudential tool. We find that when mortgage stress tests are applied to all mortgage purchase originations, they improve credit quality and reduce credit and house price growth. They also improve the resilience of borrowers to financial shocks, such as the large increase in interest rates during 2022–23. -
How do Canadians perceive access to cash?
This paper introduces a subjective measure of cash accessibility in Canada, complementing existing distance-based metrics developed by Chen, O’Habib and Xiao (2023). Analyzing data from the 2023 Methods-of-Payment Survey, this study explores how Canadians perceive their ease of accessing cash from automated banking machines (ABMs) and financial institution branches. -
The Consumer Value Proposition for a Hypothetical Digital Canadian Dollar
We explore the consumer value proposition of a hypothetical Digital Canadian Dollar, adoption considerations and the users who would benefit most from this potential new payment method. We employ a design-thinking consultation methodology, allowing participants to interact with research prototypes of increasing complexity to reveal user preferences, constraints and adoption influences. -
Monetary Policy Transmission amid Demand Reallocations
We analyze the transmission of monetary policy during different phases of a sectoral demand reallocation episode when there are frictions to increasing production in a sector. Monetary policy is more effective in reducing inflation when a larger proportion of sectors are expanding or expect to expand in the near future. -
Monetary Policy Transmission to Small Business Loan Performance: Evidence from Loan-Level Data
We analyze the dynamic and heterogeneous responses of small-business loan performance to a monetary-policy shock using loan-level data in Canada. We find evidence of monetary policy transmission through the cash-flow channel and the aggregate demand channel as well as some, though limited, impact of collateral to discipline loan repayment. -
Immigration and US Shelter Prices: The Role of Geographical and Immigrant Heterogeneity
The arrival of immigrants increases demand for housing and puts upward pressure on shelter prices. Using instrumental variables based on the ancestry composition of residents in US counties, we estimate the causal impact of immigration on local shelter prices.