Staff research, Publications
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June 30, 2017
Research Update - June 2017
This monthly newsletter features the latest research publications by Bank of Canada economists including external publications and working papers published on the Bank of Canada’s website. -
June 30, 2017
Business Outlook Survey - Summer 2017
Responses to the summer Business Outlook Survey suggest that business activity is continuing to gain momentum, buoyed by indications that domestic demand will improve further. Positive business prospects are increasingly widespread across regions and sectors. -
June 30, 2017
Senior Loan Officer Survey - Second Quarter of 2017
Survey results for 2017Q2 suggest that overall business-lending conditions were essentially unchanged for the fourth consecutive quarter. -
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Understanding Monetary Policy and its Effects: Evidence from Canadian Firms Using the Business Outlook Survey
This paper shows (i) that business sentiment, as captured by survey data, matters for monetary policy decisions in Canada, and (ii) how business perspectives are affected by monetary policy shocks. Measures of business sentiment (soft data) are shown to have systematic explanatory power for monetary policy decisions over and above typical Taylor rule variables. -
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Understanding the Cross‐Country Effects of US Technology Shocks
Business cycles are substantially correlated across countries. Yet most existing models are not able to generate substantial transmission through international trade. We show that the nature of such transmission depends fundamentally on the features determining the responsiveness of labor supply and labor demand to international relative prices. -
Detecting Scapegoat Effects in the Relationship Between Exchange Rates and Macroeconomic Fundamentals
This paper presents a new testing method for the scapegoat model of exchange rates that aims to tighten the link between the theory on scapegoats and its empirical implementation. This new testing method consists of a number of steps. -