Staff research, Publications
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September 18, 2024
Summary of Governing Council deliberations: Fixed announcement date of September 4, 2024
This is an account of the deliberations of the Bank of Canada’s Governing Council leading to the monetary policy decision on September 4, 2024. -
Ecosystem Models for a Central Bank Digital Currency: Analysis Framework and Potential Models
This note analyzes different economic models of a central bank digital currency (CBDC) ecosystem where the central bank chooses different levels of market involvement and usage of policy levers. The analysis suggests that there are trade-offs between the costs to the central bank and its ability to achieve policy goals like universal access. -
Household Food Inflation in Canada
We study food inflation rates for Canadian households during periods of low and high inflation from 2012Q4 to 2023Q4. Households experienced more varied inflation rates during the recent high inflation. Cumulative food inflation has been 2.2 percentage points higher for lower-income households than for highest-income households since the inflation surge. -
Let’s Get Physical: Impacts of Climate Change Physical Risks on Provincial Employment
We analyze 40 years’ worth of natural disasters using a local projection framework to assess their impact on provincial labour markets in Canada. We find that disasters decrease hours worked within a week and lower wage growth in the medium run. Our study highlights that disasters affect vulnerable workers through the income channel. -
August 27, 2024
How high productivity helps fight inflation
Higher productivity helps keep prices down and wages up. It gives workers more money to spend and increases the value they get when they spend it. And it allows businesses to weather cost increases without having to raise prices. All together, these factors drive economic growth. -
August 22, 2024
Quarterly Financial Report - Second Quarter 2024
Quarterly Financial Report - Second Quarter 2024 - For the period ended June 30, 2024, unaudited -
Price Discounts and Cheapflation During the Post-Pandemic Inflation Surge
We study how price variation within a store changes with inflation, and whether households exploit these changes to reduce the burden of inflation. We find that price changes from discounts mitigated the inflation burden while cheapflation exacerbated it. -
Decision Synthesis in Monetary Policy
We use Bayesian predictive decision synthesis to formalize monetary policy decision-making. We develop a case-study of monetary policy decision-making of an inflation-targeting central bank using multiple models in a manner that considers decision goals, expectations and outcomes. -
CORRA: Explaining the rise in volumes and resulting upward pressure
On May 27, 2024, the settlement period for trading GoC bonds in the secondary market in Canada moved from two days to one. This shortened time for settling secondary cash bond trades caused CORRA volumes to rise significantly, and they have remained elevated since. This combined with the skew in demand for funding has pressured CORRA higher. We find no indications that any other factors are contributing to the most recent pressures on CORRA.