G - Financial Economics

• Unintended Consequences of the Home Affordable Refinance Program

  Staff Working Paper 2024-11 Phoebe Tian, Chen Zheng

  We investigate the unintended consequences of the Home Affordable Refinance Program (HARP). Originally designed to help borrowers refinance after the 2008–09 global financial crisis, HARP inadvertently strengthened the market power of incumbent lenders by creating a cost advantage for them. Despite a 2013 policy rectifying this cost advantage, we still find significant welfare losses for borrowers.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial institutions JEL Code(s): G, G2, G21, G5, G51, L, L5, L51

• Measuring household financial stress in Canada using consumer surveys

  Staff Analytical Note 2024-5 Nicolas Bédard, Patrick Sabourin

  We use data from the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations to understand how households are coping with high inflation and high interest rates. We build a subjective measure of financial stress and find that the level of stress is at a historical high but remains manageable for most households.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Domestic demand and components, Financial stability, Monetary policy transmission, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): D, D1, D14, G, G5, H, H3

• CBDC: Banking and Anonymity

  Staff Working Paper 2024-9 Yuteng Cheng, Ryuichiro Izumi

  We examine the optimal amount of user anonymity in a central bank digital currency in the context of bank lending. Anonymity, defined as the lender’s inability to discern an entrepreneur’s actions that enable fund diversion, influences the choice of payment instrument due to its impact on a bank’s lending decisions.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Digital currencies and fintech JEL Code(s): E, E4, E42, E5, E58, G, G2, G28

• Monetary Policy Transmission Through Shadow and Traditional Banks

  Staff Working Paper 2024-8 Amina Enkhbold

  I investigate how monetary policy transmits to mortgage rates via the mortgage market concentration channel for both traditional and shadow banks in the United States from 2009 to 2019. On average, shadow and traditional banks exhibit only a slight disparity in transmitting monetary shocks to mortgage rates.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial institutions, Interest rates, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, E5, E52, G, G2, G21

• What has been putting upward pressure on CORRA?

  Staff Analytical Note 2024-4 Boran Plong, Neil Maru

  From the autumn of 2023 into early 2024, the Canadian Overnight Repo Rate Average (CORRA), a measure of the cost of overnight general collateral Canadian dollar repos, was consistently well above the Bank’s target for the overnight rate. We find that, among several factors, long bond positions that require repo financing are the main driver of the recent upward pressure on CORRA.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Financial markets, Interest rates, Lender of last resort, Monetary policy implementation JEL Code(s): D, D4, D5, D53, E, E4, E43, E44, E5, E52, G, G1, G12

• Decomposing Large Banks’ Systemic Trading Losses

  Staff Working Paper 2024-6 Radoslav Raykov

  Do banks realize simultaneous trading losses because they invest in the same assets, or because different assets are subject to the same macro shocks? This paper decomposes the comovements of bank trading losses into two orthogonal channels: portfolio overlap and common shocks.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial stability JEL Code(s): G, G1, G10, G11, G2, G20

• The Role of Long-Term Contracting in Business Lending

  Staff Working Paper 2024-2 Phoebe Tian

  This paper examines inefficiencies arising from a lack of long-term contracting in small business lending in China.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial institutions JEL Code(s): D, D8, D83, D86, G, G2, G21, L, L1, L14, L2, L26

• Market structure of cryptoasset exchanges: Introduction, challenges and emerging trends

  Staff Analytical Note 2024-2 Vladimir Skavysh, Jacob Sharples, Sofia Priazhkina, Salman H. Hasham

  This paper provides an overview of cryptoasset exchanges. We contrast their design with exchanges in traditional financial markets and discuss emerging regulatory trends and innovations aimed at solving the problems cryptoasset exchanges face.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Digital currencies and fintech, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): G, G1, G15, L, L1
• January 15, 2024

  Mapping out the implications of climate transition risk for the financial system

  Gabriel Bruneau, Javier Ojea Ferreiro, Andrew Plummer, Marie-Christine Tremblay, Aidan Witts

  We develop a new analytical framework to understand the system-wide implications of climate transition risk. When applying this framework to Canadian data, we find that interconnections within the financial sector could amplify the direct effects of climate transition risk on financial entities.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Hub articles Topic(s): Climate change, Economic models, Financial institutions, Financial markets, Financial stability JEL Code(s): C, C6, C63, G, G0, G01, G1, G10, G2, G20, Q, Q5, Q54
• January 15, 2024

  Flood risk and residential lending

  Craig Johnston, Geneviève Vallée, Hossein Hosseini Jebeli, Miguel Molico, Marie-Christine Tremblay, Aidan Witts

  We present key findings of a recent study that evaluates the credit risk that flooding poses to the residential lending activities of Canadian banks and credit unions. Results show that such risk currently appears modest but could become larger with climate change.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Hub articles Topic(s): Central bank research, Climate change, Credit risk management, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial institutions, Financial stability JEL Code(s): C, C8, C81, G, G2, G21, Q, Q5, Q54