G - Financial Economics
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Decomposing Systemic Risk: The Roles of Contagion and Common Exposures
We examine systemic risks within the Canadian banking sector, decomposing them into three contribution channels: contagion, common exposures, and idiosyncratic risk. Through a structural model, we dissect how interbank relationships and market conditions contribute to systemic risk, providing new insights for financial stability. -
Survey of Indigenous Firms: A Snapshot of Wages, Prices and Financing in the Indigenous Business Sector in Canada
What sources of financing do Indigenous-owned businesses in Canada use, and what are their expectations about prices, wages and inflation? We find Indigenous-owned firms are significantly less reliant on financial institutions as sources of financing compared with non-Indigenous firms. We also find Indigenous-owned firms have higher inflation expectations and weaker wage-growth expectations. -
Financial Intermediation and Fire Sales with Liquidity Risk Pricing
We provide a theory of fire sales in which potential buyers are subject to liquidity shocks and frictions that limit their ability to resell assets. Viewed through the lens of the model, the liquidity requirements proposed by the U. S. Securities and Exchange Commission for these intermediaries could hurt the economy. -
Digital Payments in Firm Networks: Theory of Adoption and Quantum Algorithm
We build a network formation game of firms with trade flows to study the adoption and usage of a new digital currency as an alternative to correspondent banking. -
The Macroeconomic Implications of Coholding
Coholder households simultaneously carry high-cost credit card debt and low-yield cash. We study the implications of this behavior for fiscal and monetary policy, finding that coholder households have smaller consumption responses in the short run but larger responses in the long run. -
U.S. Macroeconomic News and Low-Frequency Changes in Small Open Economies’ Bond Yields
Using two complementary approaches, we investigate the importance of U.S. macroeconomic news in driving low-frequency fluctuations in the term structure of interest rates in Canada, Sweden and the United Kingdom. We find that U.S. macroeconomic news is particularly important to explain changes in the expectation components of the nominal, real and break-even inflation rates of small open economies. -
Liquidity risks at Canadian life insurance companies
We examine how life insurers manage liquidity risks created by their business model. We find that Canadian life insurers did not face significant liquidity draws and continued their usual investment behaviour during the COVID-19 crisis and as interest rates increased in 2022. -
Unintended Consequences of the Home Affordable Refinance Program
We investigate the unintended consequences of the Home Affordable Refinance Program (HARP). Originally designed to help borrowers refinance after the 2008–09 global financial crisis, HARP inadvertently strengthened the market power of incumbent lenders by creating a cost advantage for them. Despite a 2013 policy rectifying this cost advantage, we still find significant welfare losses for borrowers. -
Measuring household financial stress in Canada using consumer surveys
We use data from the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations to understand how households are coping with high inflation and high interest rates. We build a subjective measure of financial stress and find that the level of stress is at a historical high but remains manageable for most households.
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