Posts

• The reliance of Canadians on credit card debt as a predictor of financial stress

  Staff Analytical Note 2024-18 Jia Qi Xiao

  I analyze the relationship between carrying a credit card balance and future financial stress. I find that carrying a balance significantly increases the likelihood that credit card holders miss future debt payments. This likelihood tends to rise as credit card balances grow and are held for long periods.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Financial institutions, Interest rates, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): D, D1, E, E4, E5, G, G2, G21

• Could all-to-all trading improve liquidity in the Government of Canada bond market?

  Staff Analytical Note 2024-17 Jabir Sandhu, Rishi Vala

  We find that on any given day, nearly half of Government of Canada bond transactions by clients of dealers can be offset with other clients, including during the turmoil in March 2020. Our results show that under certain conditions clients could potentially trade directly with each other and are a step towards understanding the relevance of broader all-to-all trading in the Government of Canada bond market.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Financial institutions, Financial markets, Financial stability, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): D, D4, D47, D5, D53, G, G0, G01, G1, G12, G13, G14, G2, G21, G23
• July 15, 2024

  Business Outlook Survey—Second Quarter of 2024

  Results from the Business Outlook Survey and the Business Leaders’ Pulse continue to signal weak demand, which is weighing on investment and hiring plans. While few firms are planning layoffs, labour markets are widely seen as continuing to soften. Although they remain above average, wage and inflation expectations are easing. Most firms that made abnormally large price increases in the past 12 months do not plan to do so again in the coming year.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Business Outlook Survey
• July 15, 2024

  Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations—Second Quarter of 2024

  Consumers’ perceptions of inflation are unchanged from a quarter ago, but their expectations for near-term inflation declined significantly. While both measures have improved substantially in recent quarters, they remain higher than they were before the COVID‑19 pandemic. Most consumers continue to think that domestic factors are contributing to high inflation. Sentiment remains subdued and unchanged from last quarter, as high inflation and elevated interest rates continue to constrain people’s budgets. Perceived financial stress remains high, most consumers continue to report spending cuts, and pessimism about future economic conditions persists. Canadians’ perceptions of the labour market have weakened this quarter, especially among private sector employees. Yet overall wage growth expectations reached a new survey high, driven by public sector employees.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations
• July 15, 2024

  The Bank of Canada releases the second quarter issues of the Business Outlook Survey and the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations

  On Monday, July 15, 2024, the Bank of Canada will release the second quarter issues of the Business Outlook Survey and the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations.

  Content Type(s): Press, Media advisories
• July 12, 2024

  Bank of Canada announces increases to the dealer and round limits for Overnight Repo operations

  Effective Monday, July 15, 2024, dealer limits for Overnight Repo (OR) operations will increase to $3 billion for each eligible participant from the previous $1 billion.

  Content Type(s): Press, Market notices Source(s): Overnight repo operations

• The Ecology of Automated Market Makers

  Staff Discussion Paper 2024-12 Annetta Ho, Cosmin Cazan, Andrew Schrumm

  This paper describes the ecology of automated market makers, which are the most popular decentralized exchange model for the pricing and trading of crypto assets within decentralized finance.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Digital currencies and fintech, Financial markets, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies JEL Code(s): G, G1, G2

• The Role of Public Money in the Digital Age

  Staff Discussion Paper 2024-11 Francisco Rivadeneyra, Scott Hendry, Alejandro García

  A well-functioning monetary system is characterized by public and private forms of money that exchange at par as value flows freely between them. A relevant retail public money—whether in the form of cash, a central bank digital currency or both—is a necessary component of such a monetary system.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Central bank research, Digital currencies and fintech, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): E, E4, E42, E5, E50, E58

• Untapped Potential: Mobile Device Ownership and Mobile Payments in Canada

  Staff Working Paper 2024-25 Marie-Hélène Felt, Angelika Welte, Katrina Talavera

  We present a two-stage model of mobile phone and mobile payment usage that controls for selectivity. This reveals unobserved factors that work against having a mobile phone and toward mobile paying. Therefore, people who are unable to acquire or choose not to own a mobile device might have unmet payment needs.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Bank notes, Digital currencies and fintech, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C3, C39, D, D1, D12, E, E4, E42
• July 9, 2024

  What drives up the price of groceries

  

  Weather, energy prices, and labour and import costs all contribute to higher grocery prices

  Content Type(s): Publications, The Economy, Plain and Simple Topic(s): Exchange rates, Inflation and prices, Inflation targets, Labour markets