O - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth

• How do Canadians perceive access to cash?

  Staff Analytical Note 2024-24 Heng Chen, Daneal O’Habib, Hongyu Xiao

  This paper introduces a subjective measure of cash accessibility in Canada, complementing existing distance-based metrics developed by Chen, O’Habib and Xiao (2023). Analyzing data from the 2023 Methods-of-Payment Survey, this study explores how Canadians perceive their ease of accessing cash from automated banking machines (ABMs) and financial institution branches.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Bank notes, Financial services, Regional economic developments JEL Code(s): J, J1, J15, O, O1, R, R5, R51

• The Consumer Value Proposition for a Hypothetical Digital Canadian Dollar

  Staff Discussion Paper 2024-16 Martine Warren, Bill Laur, Ted Garanzotis, Sebastian Hernandez

  We explore the consumer value proposition of a hypothetical Digital Canadian Dollar, adoption considerations and the users who would benefit most from this potential new payment method. We employ a design-thinking consultation methodology, allowing participants to interact with research prototypes of increasing complexity to reveal user preferences, constraints and adoption influences.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Accessibility, Bank notes, Central bank research, Digital currencies and fintech JEL Code(s): C, C9, D, D1, D12, E, E4, E42, E5, E58, O, O3, O33

• Analysis of DeFi Oracles

  Staff Discussion Paper 2024-10 Xun Deng, Sidi Mohamed Beillahi, Cyrus Minwalla, Han Du, Andreas Veneris, Fan Long

  Oracles are constructs used in decentralized finance to price assets relative to each other. However, oracles contain defects that could lead to manipulation attacks. Such attacks exploit pricing models embedded within oracles to defraud creators and users. We automatically verify defects, which if mitigated, improves the security of digital currency.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Central bank research, Digital currencies and fintech, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): E, E4, E42, E5, E51, G, G1, G15, O, O3, O31

• The Role of Beliefs in Entering and Exiting the Bitcoin Market

  Staff Working Paper 2024-22 Daniela Balutel, Christopher Henry, Jorge Vásquez, Marcel Voia

  We develop a model that links investors’ decisions to enter or exit the Bitcoin market with their beliefs about the survival of Bitcoin. Empirical testing using Canadian data reveals that beliefs strongly influence both entries and exits, and this impact varies with time and ownership status.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Bank notes, Digital currencies and fintech, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): D, D8, D83, E, E4, E41, O, O3, O33

• Total factor productivity growth projection for Canada: A sectoral approach

  Staff Analytical Note 2024-12 Dany Brouillette, Tessa Devakos, Raven Wheesk

  We propose a tool that decomposes TFP growth into sectoral contributions. The analysis incorporates three structural factors—digitalization, aging and climate change policies—and measures their contributions. Overall, we expect that aggregate TFP growth will slow down in the 2020s below both its historical average and the average from the 2010s.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Climate change, Digitalization, Labour markets, Productivity JEL Code(s): D, D2, D24, J, J1, J11, O, O3, O33, Q, Q5, Q54

• Assessing global potential output growth: April 2024

  Staff Analytical Note 2024-10 Amor Aniss Benmoussa, Raheeb Dastagir, Eshini Ekanayake, Justin-Damien Guénette, Helen Lao, Jenna Rolland-Mills, Aidan Spencer, Lin Xiang

  This note presents the annual update of Bank of Canada staff estimates for growth in global potential output. These estimates serve as key inputs to the analysis supporting the April 2024 Monetary Policy Report.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E1, E2, F, F0, O, O4