Staff research

• How Do Households Respond to Expected Inflation? An Investigation of Transmission Mechanisms

  Staff Working Paper 2024-44 Janet Hua Jiang, Rupal Kamdar, Kelin Lu, Daniela Puzzello

  We conduct surveys to study how consumer spending responds to higher inflation expectations. Most respondents spend the same, sticking to fixed budget plans or not considering inflation for spending decisions. About 20% decrease spending because they feel poorer and cut spending to invest in inflation-proof assets. Very few increase spending.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Central bank research, Inflation and prices, Inflation targets, Monetary policy, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): D, D1, D15, D8, D84, E, E2, E5, E52, E7

• Gender Gaps in Time Use and Entrepreneurship

  Staff Working Paper 2024-43 Pedro Bento, Lin Shao, Faisal Sohail

  The prevalence of entrepreneurs, particularly low-productivity non-employers, declines as economies develop. This decline is more pronounced for women. Relative to men, women are more likely to be entrepreneurs in poor economies but less likely in rich economies.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Firm dynamics, Productivity JEL Code(s): J, J2, L, L2, O, O1

• Mortgage stress tests and household financial resilience under monetary policy tightening

  Staff Analytical Note 2024-25 Jonathan Hartley, Nuno Paixão

  This note analyzes mortgage stress tests, a macroprudential tool. We find that when mortgage stress tests are applied to all mortgage purchase originations, they improve credit quality and reduce credit and house price growth. They also improve the resilience of borrowers to financial shocks, such as the large increase in interest rates during 2022–23.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Financial institutions, Financial system regulation and policies, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, G, G2, G21, G28, G5, G50, G51