E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics

• Unmet Payment Needs and a Central Bank Digital Currency

  Staff Discussion Paper 2023-15 Christopher Henry, Walter Engert, Alexandra Sutton-Lalani, Sebastian Hernandez, Darcey McVanel, Kim Huynh

  We discuss the payment habits of Canadians both in the current payment environment and in a hypothetical cashless environment.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Bank notes, Central bank research, Digital currencies and fintech, Financial services JEL Code(s): C, C1, C12, C9, E, E4, O, O5, O54

• The contribution of firm profits to the recent rise in inflation

  Staff Analytical Note 2023-12 Panagiotis Bouras, Christian Bustamante, Xing Guo, Jacob Short

  We measure the contribution to inflation from the growth in markups of Canadian firms. The dynamics of inflation and markups suggest that changes in markups could account for less than one-tenth of inflation in 2021. Further, they suggest that peak inflation was driven primarily by changes in the costs of firms.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Firm dynamics, Inflation and prices, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): D, D2, D22, D4, E, E3, E31, L, L1, L11

• Is Money Essential? An Experimental Approach

  Staff Working Paper 2023-39 Janet Hua Jiang, Peter Norman, Daniela Puzzello, Bruno Sultanum, Randall Wright

  Monetary theory says that money is essential if it helps to achieve better incentive-feasible outcomes. We test this in the laboratory.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Central bank research, Economic models JEL Code(s): C, C9, C92, E, E4, E5

• It takes a panel to predict the future: What the stock market says about future economic growth in Canada

  Staff Analytical Note 2023-9 Greg Adams, Jean-Sébastien Fontaine

  Valuation ratios in the Canadian stock market can help reveal investors’ expectations about future economic growth because the impact of economic growth on valuation ratios can vary across industries. We find that this variation helps produce accurate forecasts of future growth of real gross domestic product in Canada. The forecasts from our model declined by just over 3 percentage points between January 2022 and February 2023—a period when the Bank of Canada rapidly increased the overnight rate. As well, we find that interest-rate-sensitive industries had an outsized contribution to this expected slowdown in growth. 

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Asset pricing, Financial markets, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, E47, E5, E52

• Cryptoasset Ownership and Use in Canada: An Update for 2022

  Staff Discussion Paper 2023-14 Daniela Balutel, Christopher Henry, Doina Rusu

  We find that Bitcoin ownership declined from 13% in 2021 to 10% in 2022. This drop occurred against a background of steep price declines and an increasingly tight regulatory atmosphere.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Bank notes, Digital currencies and fintech, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C8, C81, E, E4, O, O5, O51

• Global Demand and Supply Sentiment: Evidence from Earnings Calls

  Staff Working Paper 2023-37 Temel Taskin, Franz Ulrich Ruch

  This paper quantifies global demand, supply and uncertainty shocks and compares two major global recessions: the 2008–09 Great Recession and the COVID-19 pandemic. We use two alternate approaches to decompose economic shocks: text mining techniques on earnings calls transcripts and a structural Bayesian vector autoregression model.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Econometric and statistical methods, Inflation and prices, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C1, C11, C3, C32, E, E3, E32, G, G1, G10

• What Can Earnings Calls Tell Us About the Output Gap and Inflation in Canada?

  Staff Discussion Paper 2023-13 Marc-André Gosselin, Temel Taskin

  We construct new indicators of demand and supply for the Canadian economy by using natural language processing techniques to analyze earnings calls of publicly listed firms. Our results indicate that the new indicators could help central banks identify inflationary pressures in real time.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Central bank research, Domestic demand and components, Econometric and statistical methods, Inflation and prices, Potential output JEL Code(s): C, C1, C3, E, E3, E5

• Why Consumers Disagree About Future Inflation

  Staff Discussion Paper 2023-11 Naveen Rai, Patrick Sabourin

  Since 2022, consumer inflation expectations have shifted, with a significant increase in those expecting high inflation in the coming year and a surge in those expecting deflation further in the future. Using data from the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations, this paper seeks to assess the factors that influence people to expect high inflation, moderate inflation or deflation.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): C, C8, C83, D, D8, D84, E, E3, E31

• Markups and inflation during the COVID-19 pandemic

  Staff Analytical Note 2023-8 Olga Bilyk, Timothy Grieder, Mikael Khan

  We find that prices and costs for consumer-oriented firms moved roughly one-for-one during the COVID-19 pandemic. This means firms fully passed rising costs through to the prices they charged. However, our results are suggestive, given data limitations and the uncertainty associated with estimating markups.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Firm dynamics, Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): D, D2, D4, E, E2, E3, L, L1

• What People Believe About Monetary Finance and What We Can(’t) Do About It: Evidence from a Large-Scale, Multi-Country Survey Experiment

  Staff Working Paper 2023-36 Cars Hommes, Julien Pinter, Isabelle Salle

  We conduct a large-scale survey to shed light on what people believe about public finance. An experiment demonstrates that central bank communication can persistently shift views on monetary financing. It further suggests that views on monetary financing impact support for fiscal discipline.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Central bank research, Fiscal policy, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): C, C8, C83, E, E5, E58, E6, E60, E62, E7, E70, G, G5, G53, H, H3, H31