E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics

• Should Banks Be Worried About Dividend Restrictions?

  Staff Working Paper 2023-49 Josef Schroth

  A regulator would want to restrict dividends to force banks to rebuild capital during a crisis. But such a policy is not time-consistent. A time-consistent policy would let banks gradually rebuild capital and pay dividends even when their equity remains below pre-crisis levels.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Credit and credit aggregates, Credit risk management, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, Lender of last resort JEL Code(s): E, E1, E13, E3, E32, E4, E44

• Tattle-tails: Gauging downside risks using option prices

  Staff Analytical Note 2023-13 Greg Adams, Maksym Tupis

  Options markets offer unique insights into the changing risks different assets face, which helps us better understand the broader risks to the Canadian economy. We show how option prices help reveal that investors did not anticipate large downside risks to either major Canadian banks or economic growth during the March 2023 financial sector system stress, a period when policy-makers and investors were unsure of what the future held for Canada’s economy.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Financial markets, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, E5, E52

• Digitalization: Definition and Measurement

  Staff Discussion Paper 2023-20 Guyllaume Faucher, Stephanie Houle

  This paper provides an overview of digitalization and its economic implications. We assess the scope of digitalization in Canada as well as the challenges related to its measurement.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Digitalization, Potential output JEL Code(s): E, E0, E01, O, O3, O33, O5, O51

• Forecasting Risks to the Canadian Economic Outlook at a Daily Frequency

  Staff Discussion Paper 2023-19 Chinara Azizova, Bruno Feunou, James Kyeong

  This paper quantifies tail risks in the outlooks for Canadian inflation and real GDP growth by estimating their conditional distributions at a daily frequency. We show that the tail risk probabilities derived from the conditional distributions accurately reflect realized outcomes during the sample period from 2002 to 2022.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, C5, C58, E, E4, E44, G, G1, G17

• The Macroeconomic Effects of Debt Relief Policies During Recessions

  Staff Working Paper 2023-48 Soyoung Lee

  A large-scale reduction in mortgage principal can strengthen a recovery, support house prices and lower foreclosures. The nature of the intervention shapes its impact, which rests on how resources are redistributed across households. The availability of bankruptcy on unsecured debt changes the response to large-scale mortgage relief by reducing precautionary savings.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Credit and credit aggregates, Debt management, Housing JEL Code(s): E, E2, E21, E3, E32, E6

• Labour Supply and Firm Size

  Staff Working Paper 2023-47 Lin Shao, Faisal Sohail, Emircan Yurdagul

  This paper documents a systematic pattern of how wages, hours and their relationship vary across firms of different sizes. Using a model with heterogeneous firms and workers, we show how the interplay between wages, hours and firm size affect worker sorting and inequality.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Firm dynamics, Labour markets JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, J, J2, J3, J31

• Combining Large Numbers of Density Predictions with Bayesian Predictive Synthesis

  Staff Working Paper 2023-45 Tony Chernis

  I show how to combine large numbers of forecasts using several approaches within the framework of a Bayesian predictive synthesis. I find techniques that choose and combine a handful of forecasts, known as global-local shrinkage priors, perform best.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C1, C11, C5, C52, C53, E, E3, E37

• A Behavioral New Keynesian Model of a Small Open Economy Under Limited Foresight

  Staff Working Paper 2023-44 Seunghoon Na, Yinxi Xie

  This paper studies exchange rate dynamics by incorporating bounded rationality, that is, limited foresight, in a small open-economy model. This behavior of limited foresight helps explain several observations and puzzles in the data of exchange rate movements.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Exchange rates, International topics, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, E7, E70, F, F3, F31, F4, F41

• Digitalization: Implications for Monetary Policy

  Staff Discussion Paper 2023-18 Vivian Chu, Tatjana Dahlhaus, Christopher Hajzler, Pierre-Yves Yanni

  We explore the implications of digitalization for monetary policy, both in terms of how monetary policy affects the economy and in terms of data analysis and communication with the public.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Digitalization, Inflation and prices, Market structure and pricing, Monetary policy, Monetary policy communications, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): C, C4, C8, E, E3, E31, E32, E5, E52

• Digitalization: Productivity

  Staff Discussion Paper 2023-17 Jeffrey Mollins, Temel Taskin

  We examine the relationship between digitalization and productivity, the factors that influence this relationship, and how digitalization’s effect on productivity could change firm behaviour.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Digitalization, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E2, L, L1, L11, O, O4, O47, O5, O51