Posts

• April 3, 2023

  Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations—First Quarter of 2023

  Results in the first quarter of 2023 show that consumer expectations for inflation one to two years ahead fell but remain elevated, particularly for services. Consumers, especially indebted households and equity-deserving groups, are facing financial pressures and limits on their spending due to high inflation and increasing interest rates. Consumers expect to spend less on discretionary services, such as travelling and eating out. Canadians continue to anticipate a recession in the next 12 months. Many are uncertain about where the economy and job markets are going. Despite this, workers still see the labour market as strong and expect wage growth to increase.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations

• Turning Words into Numbers: Measuring News Media Coverage of Shortages

  Staff Discussion Paper 2023-8 Lin Chen, Stephanie Houle

  We develop high-frequency, news-based indicators using natural language processing methods to analyze news media texts. Our indicators track both supply (raw, intermediate and final goods) and labour shortages over time. They also provide weekly time-varying topic narratives about various types of shortages.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Econometric and statistical methods, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): C, C5, C55, C8, C82, E, E3, E37

• What Consistent Responses on Future Inflation by Consumers Can Reveal

  Staff Discussion Paper 2023-7 Sarah Miller, Patrick Sabourin

  We analyze factors that may explain consistent answers to questions about inflation expectations in the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations. We also compare the inflation forecasts of consumers with consistent responses with those of professional forecasters.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Central bank research, Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): D, D8, D80, D84, E, E3, E31

• Supply Drivers of US Inflation Since the COVID-19 Pandemic

  Staff Working Paper 2023-19 Serdar Kabaca, Kerem Tuzcuoglu

  This paper examines the contribution of several supply factors to US headline inflation since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. We identify six supply shocks using a structural VAR model: labor supply, labor productivity, global supply chain, oil price, price mark-up and wage mark-up shocks.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, E, E3, E31, E32
• March 31, 2023

  Release of the 2022 Bank of Canada FMI Oversight Activities Annual Report

  The Bank of Canada today published the Bank of Canada Oversight Activities for Financial Market Infrastructures 2022 Annual Report.

  Content Type(s): Press, Market notices

• Central Bank Forecasting: A Survey

  Staff Working Paper 2023-18 Carola Conces Binder, Rodrigo Sekkel

  We review the literature on central bank forecasting with a special focus on the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England and Bank of Canada.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E4, E47, E5, E52, E58
• March 31, 2023

  Quarterly Research Update – 2023 Q1

  This newsletter features the latest research publications by Bank of Canada economists including external publications and working papers published on the Bank of Canada’s website.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Research newsletters
• March 29, 2023

  Speech by Toni Gravelle, Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada

  On Wednesday, March 29, 2023, Toni Gravelle, Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada, will speak at the 21^st National Bank Financial Services Conference.

  Content Type(s): Press, Media advisories
• March 29, 2023

  Lessons from our support of financial markets in tough times

  Speech summary Toni Gravelle National Bank Financial Services Conference Montréal, Quebec

  Deputy Governor Toni Gravelle talks about how the Bank of Canada supported markets during the COVID-19 pandemic and what we might do differently in the future. He also discusses recent turmoil in the banking system in the United States and overseas.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Speech summaries Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Financial markets, Financial stability, Lender of last resort, Recent economic and financial developments
• March 29, 2023

  The Bank of Canada’s market liquidity programs: Lessons from a pandemic

  Remarks Toni Gravelle National Bank Financial Services Conference Montréal, Quebec

  Deputy Governor Toni Gravelle speaks about market liquidity measures taken during the COVID-19 pandemic, and addresses recent turmoil in the US and international banking sectors.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Financial markets, Financial stability, Lender of last resort, Recent economic and financial developments