June 30, 2023
Posts
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June 30, 2023
Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations—Second Quarter of 2023
Inflation expectations for one to two years ahead have come down again but remain well above their levels from before the COVID-19 pandemic. The higher cost of living is the most pressing concern for consumers, and along with elevated interest rates, continues to constrain most households’ spending. Homeowners who are planning to renew their mortgage over the next two years and who expect significantly higher payments are likely to plan spending cuts. Some households though are starting to think the worst is behind them. Consumer confidence about the future of the economy has improved alongside their lower inflation expectations. Expected lower interest rates and strong immigration, which boosts housing demand, are behind consumers’ view that housing market will increase over the next year. Workers remain confident about jobs. -
What Can Earnings Calls Tell Us About the Output Gap and Inflation in Canada?
We construct new indicators of demand and supply for the Canadian economy by using natural language processing techniques to analyze earnings calls of publicly listed firms. Our results indicate that the new indicators could help central banks identify inflationary pressures in real time. -
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June 27, 2023
Panel participation by Sharon Kozicki, Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada
On Tuesday, June 27, 2023, Sharon Kozicki, Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada, will participate in a panel discussion at the ECB Forum on Central Banking 2023. -
Estimating the Slope of the Demand Function at Auctions for Government of Canada Bonds
We use bid data from Government of Canada bond auctions between 1999 and 2021 to gauge the yield sensitivity of these bonds to the issuance amount. Our new metric estimates the demand function of the bidders at each auction and offers insights into the relationship between supply and yield of government bonds. -
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Why Consumers Disagree About Future Inflation
Since 2022, consumer inflation expectations have shifted, with a significant increase in those expecting high inflation in the coming year and a surge in those expecting deflation further in the future. Using data from the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations, this paper seeks to assess the factors that influence people to expect high inflation, moderate inflation or deflation. -
June 21, 2023
Summary of Governing Council deliberations: Fixed announcement date of June 7, 2023
This is an account of the deliberations of the Bank of Canada’s Governing Council leading to the monetary policy decision on June 7, 2023. -
June 21, 2023
Release of the Bank of Canada’s summary of deliberations
On Wednesday, June 21, 2023, the Bank of Canada will publish a summary of the deliberations that took place ahead of its interest rate decision on June 7, 2023.