C51 - Model Construction and Estimation

• Making It Real: Bringing Research Models into Central Bank Projections

  Staff Discussion Paper 2023-29 Marc-André Gosselin, Sharon Kozicki

  Macroeconomic projections and risk analyses play an important role in guiding monetary policy decisions. Models are integral to this process. This paper discusses how the Bank of Canada brings research models and lessons learned from those models into the central bank projection environment.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Economic models, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, C5, C51, E, E3, E37, E4, E47, E5, E52

• A Blueprint for the Fourth Generation of Bank of Canada Projection and Policy Analysis Models

  Staff Discussion Paper 2023-23 Donald Coletti

  The fourth generation of Bank of Canada projection and policy analysis models seeks to improve our understanding of inflation dynamics, the supply side of the economy and the underlying risks faced by policy-makers coming from uncertainty about how the economy functions.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Economic models, Inflation and prices, Labour markets, Monetary policy and uncertainty JEL Code(s): C, C5, C50, C51, C52, C53, C54, C55

• Risk Amplification Macro Model (RAMM)

  Technical Report No. 123 Kerem Tuzcuoglu

  The Risk Amplification Macro Model (RAMM) is a new nonlinear two-country dynamic model that captures rare but severe adverse shocks. The RAMM can be used to assess the financial stability implications of both domestic and foreign-originated risk scenarios.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial stability, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): C, C5, C51, E, E3, E37, E4, E44, F, F4, F44