Staff research, Publications
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Machine learning for economics research: when, what and how
This article reviews selected papers that use machine learning for economics research and policy analysis. Our review highlights when machine learning is used in economics, the commonly preferred models and how those models are used. -
Uncovering the Differences Among Displaced Workers: Evidence from Canadian Job Separation Records
We revisit the measurement of the sources and consequences of job displacement using Canadian job separation records. -
Borrow Now, Pay Even Later: A Quantitative Analysis of Student Debt Payment Plans
We investigate alternative student debt contracts that defer payments and ease the burden of student loans on US households by preserving disposable income early in borrowers’ lives. Our model shows substantial welfare gains from these contracts relative to existing plans and gains similar to the Biden administration's proposals but with a significantly lower cost. -
October 25, 2023
Monetary Policy Report – October 2023
Higher interest rates are working to ease price pressures in Canada and inflation is coming down, though progress to the 2% target is slow. The Bank projects that inflation will stay around 3½% until the middle of 2024, returning to target in 2025. -
Identifying Nascent High-Growth Firms Using Machine Learning
Firms that grow rapidly have the potential to usher in new innovations, products or processes (Kogan et al. 2017), become superstar firms (Haltiwanger et al. 2013) and impact the aggregate labour share (Autor et al. 2020; De Loecker et al. 2020). We explore the use of supervised machine learning techniques to identify a population of nascent high-growth firms using Canadian administrative firm-level data. -
Decentralized finance: Innovations and challenges
Decentralized finance surged in popularity around 2020. We explore its value and limitations and highlight some potential regulatory concerns. -
October 16, 2023
Business Outlook Survey—Third Quarter of 2023
Results from the Business Outlook Survey for the third quarter of 2023, along with those from the July, August and September 2023 Business Leaders’ Pulse surveys suggest that on balance, firms are still planning to make larger and more frequent price increases than they did before the COVID-19 pandemic. Further, businesses' outlook for demand has continued to weaken as higher interest rates impact the economy. -
October 16, 2023
Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations—Third Quarter of 2023
Consumers’ perceptions of current inflation remain elevated and are diverging from actual inflation. Perceptions of high inflation are also leading to persistently high expectations for inflation over the next 12 months. Consumers’ expectations for interest rates one year from now also remain high, and many consumers believe that the impacts of higher interest rates on their household spending are far from over. Homeowners with a variable-rate mortgage are more likely than other consumers to report being worse off due to high interest rates. Consumers’ plans to purchase services, such as vacations or concerts, are more widespread than plans to make major purchases of goods that are likely to be financed with loans, such as vehicles or appliances. Workers are reporting signs of job market cooling, such as more time spent looking for a new job, but they remain confident about the labour market. -
Estimating the Appropriate Quantity of Settlement Balances in a Floor System
This paper presents two complementary approaches to estimating the appropriate quantity of settlement balances needed to effectively operate monetary policy under a floor system in Canada.