Staff research, Publications
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Is Money Essential? An Experimental Approach
Monetary theory says that money is essential if it helps to achieve better incentive-feasible outcomes. We test this in the laboratory. -
BoC–BoE Sovereign Default Database: Appendix and References
Since 2014, the Bank of Canada (BoC) has maintained a comprehensive database of sovereign defaults to systematically measure and aggregate the nominal value of the different types of sovereign government debt in default. The database is posted on the BoC’s website and is updated annually in partnership with the Bank of England (BoE). -
BoC–BoE Sovereign Default Database: Methodology and Assumptions
The Bank of Canada (BoC), in partnership with the Bank of England (BoE), developed a comprehensive database of sovereign defaults in 2014. The database is posted on the Bank of Canada’s website and updated annually. The BoC–BoE database draws on datasets published by various public and private sector sources. It combines elements of these, together with new information, to develop comprehensive estimates of stocks of government obligations in default. -
It takes a panel to predict the future: What the stock market says about future economic growth in Canada
Valuation ratios in the Canadian stock market can help reveal investors’ expectations about future economic growth because the impact of economic growth on valuation ratios can vary across industries. We find that this variation helps produce accurate forecasts of future growth of real gross domestic product in Canada. The forecasts from our model declined by just over 3 percentage points between January 2022 and February 2023—a period when the Bank of Canada rapidly increased the overnight rate. As well, we find that interest-rate-sensitive industries had an outsized contribution to this expected slowdown in growth. -
Cryptoasset Ownership and Use in Canada: An Update for 2022
We find that Bitcoin ownership declined from 13% in 2021 to 10% in 2022. This drop occurred against a background of steep price declines and an increasingly tight regulatory atmosphere. -
July 26, 2023
Summary of Governing Council deliberations: Fixed announcement date of July 12, 2023
This is an account of the deliberations of the Bank of Canada’s Governing Council leading to the monetary policy decision on July 12, 2023. -
July 24, 2023
Market Participants Survey—Second Quarter of 2023
The Market Participants Survey results are based on questionnaire responses from about 30 financial market participants. -
Is Climate Transition Risk Priced into Corporate Credit Risk? Evidence from Credit Default Swaps
We study whether the credit derivatives of firms reflect the risk from climate transition. We find that climate transition risk has asymmetric and significant economic impacts on the credit risk of more vulnerable firms, and negligible effects on other firms. -
July 12, 2023
Monetary Policy Report – July 2023
Inflation in Canada and around the world has been coming down. The Bank projects that inflation will stay around 3% for the next year, returning to the 2% target by the middle of 2025.