E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics

• Uncertainty and Monetary Policy Experimentation: Empirical Challenges and Insights from Academic Literature

  Staff Discussion Paper 2022-9 Matteo Cacciatore, Dmitry Matveev, Rodrigo Sekkel

  Central banks face considerable uncertainty when conducting monetary policy. The COVID-19 pandemic brought this issue back to the forefront of policy discussions. We draw from academic literature to review key sources of uncertainty and how they affect the conduct of monetary policy.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Central bank research, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Potential output JEL Code(s): E, E3, E5

• Cash and COVID-19: What happened in 2021

  Staff Discussion Paper 2022-8 Heng Chen, Walter Engert, Kim Huynh, Daneal O’Habib, Joy Wu, Julia Zhu

  Using data from the Bank Note Distribution System and consumer surveys, we find that bank notes in circulation remained high through 2021. Canadians continued to rely on electronic methods of payment, but a significant share also continued using cash for payments.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Bank notes, Central bank research, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Digital currencies and fintech, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C1, C12, C9, E, E4, O, O5, O54

• Assessing global potential output growth and the US neutral rate: April 2022

  Staff Analytical Note 2022-4 Kyle Boutilier, Thomas J. Carter, Xin Scott Chen, Eshini Ekanayake, Louis Poirier, Peter Shannon, Akash Uppal, Lin Xiang

  We expect global potential output growth to increase from 2.7% in 2021 to 2.9% by 2024. Compared with the April 2021 assessment, global potential output growth is marginally slower. The current range for the US neutral rate is 2% to 3%, 0.25 percentage points higher than staff’s last assessment.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Interest rates, Monetary policy, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E1, E2, E4, E5, F, F0, O, O4

• Potential output and the neutral rate in Canada: 2022 reassessment

  Staff Analytical Note 2022-3 Guyllaume Faucher, Christopher Hajzler, Martin Kuncl, Dmitry Matveev, Youngmin Park, Temel Taskin

  We expect potential output growth to be lower in 2021 than anticipated in the April 2021 assessment. By 2025, growth is expected to reach 2.3%. We assess that the Canadian nominal neutral rate increased slightly to lie in the range of 2.00% to 3.00%.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Economic models, Interest rates, Labour markets, Monetary policy, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E2, E3, E4, E5

• Benchmarks for assessing labour market health

  Staff Analytical Note 2022-2 Erik Ens, Corinne Luu, Kurt See, Shu Lin Wee

  We propose a range of benchmarks for assessing labour market strength for monetary policy. This work builds on a previous framework that considers how diverse and segmented the labour market is. We apply these benchmarks to the Canadian labour market and find that it has more than recovered from the COVID-19 shock.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Econometric and statistical methods, Labour markets, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, J, J2, J21, J6

• Contribution of Human Capital Accumulation to Canadian Economic Growth

  Staff Discussion Paper 2022-7 Audra Bowlus, Youngmin Park, Chris Robinson

  This paper quantifies the contribution of human capital accumulation to the growth of real gross domestic product (GDP) in Canada.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Labour markets, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): D, D2, D24, E, E2, E24, J, J2, J24, J3, J31, O, O4, O47

• Real Exchange Rate Decompositions

  Staff Discussion Paper 2022-6 Bruno Feunou, Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, Ingomar Krohn

  We break down the exchange rate based on an explicit link between fixed income and currency markets. We isolate a foreign exchange risk premium and show it is the main driver of the exchange rate between the Canadian and US dollars, especially on monetary policy and macroeconomic news announcement days.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Asset pricing, Exchange rates, International financial markets, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, F, F3, F31, G, G1, G12

• Equilibrium in Two-Sided Markets for Payments: Consumer Awareness and the Welfare Cost of the Interchange Fee

  Staff Working Paper 2022-15 Kim Huynh, Gradon Nicholls, Oleksandr Shcherbakov

  We construct and estimate a structural two-stage model of equilibrium in a market for payments in order to quantify the network externalities and identify the main determinants of consumer and merchant decisions.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Bank notes, Digital currencies and fintech, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial services JEL Code(s): C, C5, C51, D, D1, D12, E, E4, E42, L, L1, L14

• Job Ladder and Business Cycles

  Staff Working Paper 2022-14 Felipe Alves

  During downturns, workers get stuck in low-productivity jobs and wages remain stagnant. I build an heterogenous agent incomplete market model with a full job ladder that accounts for these facts. An adverse financial shock calibrated to the US Great Recession replicates the period’s slow recovery and missing disinflation.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Inflation and prices, Labour markets, Productivity JEL Code(s): D, D3, D31, D5, D52, E, E2, E21, E24, E3, E31, E32

• COVID-19, Containment and Consumption

  Staff Discussion Paper 2022-5 Tatjana Dahlhaus, Daniel Hyun, Antoine Poulin-Moore, Jaime Trujillo, Saarah Sheikh, Benjamin Straus

  We assess the impact of COVID-19 on consumption indicators by estimating the effects of government-mandated containment measures and of the willingness of individuals to voluntarily physically distance to prevent contagion.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Domestic demand and components JEL Code(s): C, C2, C23, D, D1, D12, E, E6, E65, I, I1, I18