Posts

• April 4, 2022

  Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations—First Quarter of 2022

  This survey took place in mid-February 2022 before Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022. Follow-up interviews took place in March and provide some insight into how consumers perceive the effects of the conflict. Short-term inflation expectations have reached record-high levels because of supply disruptions and the COVID 19 pandemic. Consumers think the Russian invasion of Ukraine will make high inflation worse. Despite greater concerns about inflation today, longer-term expectations have remained stable and are below pre-pandemic levels. This suggests that long-term inflation expectations remain well anchored and that survey respondents believe the current rise in inflation will not last. Although workers anticipate significant price increases in the near term, they believe their wages will increase only modestly. This is a source of dissatisfaction for them. Despite expecting higher interest rates, consumers continue to anticipate strong spending growth on a broad range of goods and services.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations

• Contribution of Human Capital Accumulation to Canadian Economic Growth

  Staff Discussion Paper 2022-7 Audra Bowlus, Youngmin Park, Chris Robinson

  This paper quantifies the contribution of human capital accumulation to the growth of real gross domestic product (GDP) in Canada.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Labour markets, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): D, D2, D24, E, E2, E24, J, J2, J24, J3, J31, O, O4, O47
• March 31, 2022

  Bank of Canada announces the recipients of the 2022 Fellowship Program Awards

  Learn about the recipients of the Fellowship and Governor’s Awards for 2022.

  Content Type(s): Press, Announcements Source(s): Fellowship Program
• March 31, 2022

  Research Update - March 2022

  This monthly newsletter features the latest research publications by Bank of Canada economists including external publications and working papers published on the Bank of Canada’s website.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Research newsletters
• March 28, 2022

  CARR Meeting (March 28, 2022)

  Content Type(s): Meetings Source(s): Canadian Alternative Reference Rate Working Group
• March 25, 2022

  A world of difference: Households, the pandemic and monetary policy

  Remarks (delivered virtually) Sharon Kozicki Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy Conference San Francisco, California

  Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Sharon Kozicki discusses how differences among households affect economic outcomes, how shocks can have important uneven effects across households, and why these things matter for monetary policy.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Central bank research, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Domestic demand and components, Economic models, Housing, Inflation and prices, Labour markets, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework, Recent economic and financial developments
• March 25, 2022

  Household differences and why they matter

  Speech summary Sharon Kozicki Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy Conference San Francisco, California

  Deputy Governor Sharon Kozicki talks about why differences in income, wealth and debt across households are important for the economy and what the Bank of Canada will be watching for as interest rates rise.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Speech summaries Topic(s): Central bank research, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Domestic demand and components, Economic models, Housing, Inflation and prices, Labour markets, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework, Recent economic and financial developments
• March 23, 2022

  Bank of Canada to chair the Central Bank Network for Indigenous Inclusion in 2022

  Media Relations Ottawa, Ontario

  The Bank of Canada announced today it has officially begun a one-year term as chair of the Central Bank Network for Indigenous Inclusion (CBNII).

  Content Type(s): Press, Press releases

• Real Exchange Rate Decompositions

  Staff Discussion Paper 2022-6 Bruno Feunou, Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, Ingomar Krohn

  We break down the exchange rate based on an explicit link between fixed income and currency markets. We isolate a foreign exchange risk premium and show it is the main driver of the exchange rate between the Canadian and US dollars, especially on monetary policy and macroeconomic news announcement days.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Asset pricing, Exchange rates, International financial markets, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, F, F3, F31, G, G1, G12

• Equilibrium in Two-Sided Markets for Payments: Consumer Awareness and the Welfare Cost of the Interchange Fee

  Staff Working Paper 2022-15 Kim Huynh, Gradon Nicholls, Oleksandr Shcherbakov

  We construct and estimate a structural two-stage model of equilibrium in a market for payments in order to quantify the network externalities and identify the main determinants of consumer and merchant decisions.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Bank notes, Digital currencies and fintech, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial services JEL Code(s): C, C5, C51, D, D1, D12, E, E4, E42, L, L1, L14