International financial markets

• Stagflation and Topsy-Turvy Capital Flows

  Staff Working Paper 2022-46 Julien Bengui, Louphou Coulibaly

  Unregulated capital flows are likely excessive during a stagflation episode, owing to a macroeconomic externality operating through the economy’s supply side. Inflows raise domestic wages and cause unwelcome upward pressure on firm costs, yet market forces likely generate such inflows. Optimal capital flow management instead requires net outflows.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Inflation and prices, International financial markets, International topics, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): D, D6, D62, E, E5, E52, F, F3, F32, F38, F4, F41

• BoC–BoE Sovereign Default Database: What’s new in 2022?

  Staff Analytical Note 2022-11 David Beers, Elliot Jones, Karim McDaniels, Zacharie Quiviger

  The BoC–BoE database of sovereign debt defaults, published and updated annually by the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, provides comprehensive estimates of stocks of government obligations in default.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Debt management, Development economics, Financial stability, International financial markets JEL Code(s): F, F3, F34, G, G1, G10, G14, G15

• Foreign Exchange Interventions: The Long and the Short of It

  Staff Working Paper 2022-25 Patrick Alexander, Sami Alpanda, Serdar Kabaca

  This paper studies the effects of foreign exchange (FX) interventions in a two-region model where governments issue both short- and long-term bonds. We find that the term premium channel dominates the trade balance channel in our calibrated model. As a result, the conventional beggar-thy-neighbor effects of interventions are overturned.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Exchange rate regimes, Exchange rates, Foreign reserves management, International financial markets, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F3, F31, F33, F4, F41

• Real Exchange Rate Decompositions

  Staff Discussion Paper 2022-6 Bruno Feunou, Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, Ingomar Krohn

  We break down the exchange rate based on an explicit link between fixed income and currency markets. We isolate a foreign exchange risk premium and show it is the main driver of the exchange rate between the Canadian and US dollars, especially on monetary policy and macroeconomic news announcement days.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Asset pricing, Exchange rates, International financial markets, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, F, F3, F31, G, G1, G12