Assessing global potential output growth and the US neutral rate: April 2022

Staff Analytical Note 2022-4 (English)
Kyle Boutilier, Thomas J. Carter, Xin Scott Chen, Eshini Ekanayake, Louis Poirier, Peter Shannon, Akash Uppal, Lin Xiang
April 2022
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We expect global potential output growth to increase from 2.7% in 2021 to 2.9% by 2024. Compared with the April 2021 assessment, global potential output growth is marginally slower. The current range for the US neutral rate is 2% to 3%, 0.25 percentage points higher than staff’s last assessment.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes
Topic(s): Interest rates, Monetary policy, Potential output, Productivity
JEL Code(s): E, E1, E2, E4, E5, F, F0, O, O4

DOI: https://doi.org/10.34989/san-2022-4