January 31, 2022
Staff research, Publications
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On the Wedge Between the PPI and CPI Inflation Indicators
We find that the CPI and PPI inflation indexes co-moved strongly throughout the late 20th century, but their correlation has fallen substantially since the early 2000s. We offer a structural explanation for this divergence based on the growth of global supply chains since 2000. This finding offers a unique perspective for the future design of optimal monetary policy. -
January 26, 2022
Monetary Policy Report – January 2022
The Canadian economy entered 2022 in a strong position. The Bank is forecasting growth of 4% in 2022 and about 3½ % in 2023. -
January 17, 2022
Business Outlook Survey―Fourth Quarter of 2021
In the fourth-quarter Business Outlook Survey, reports of supply chain bottlenecks and labour shortages remain elevated. Firms cited robust growth in demand, although those offering hard-to-distance services still had sales below pre-pandemic levels, even before the Omicron variant began spreading broadly. These factors are resulting in upward pressures on prices over the next year. -
January 17, 2022
Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations—Fourth Quarter of 2021
This survey took place in November 2021 before the Omicron variant of COVID-19 began spreading broadly in Canada. In December, the number of COVID-19 cases rose dramatically and governments began to reimpose containment measures. Many Canadians think inflation will be high over the next two years because of supply disruptions caused by the pandemic. They are more concerned about inflation now than they were before the pandemic and believe it has become more difficult to control. However, near-term inflation expectations are not feeding into expectations for wage growth or longer-term inflation. Showing confidence in the labour market, workers are more likely than ever to want to change jobs. -
The Financial Origins of Non-fundamental Risk
We explore the idea that the financial sector can be a source of non-fundamental risk to the rest of the economy. We also consider whether policy can be used to reduce this risk—either by increasing the supply of publicly backed safe assets or by reducing the demand for safe assets. -
January 14, 2022
Assessing climate change risks to our financial system
Ensuring the stability and efficiency of the financial system is a key part of our work at the Bank of Canada. This includes analyzing structural changes that affect the economy—like climate change. These changes could increase vulnerabilities to the financial system. -
Assessing Climate-Related Financial Risk: Guide to Implementation of Methods
A pilot project on climate transition scenarios by the Bank of Canada and the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions assessed climate-related credit and market risks. This report describes the project’s methodologies and provides guidance on implementing them. -
Transition Scenarios for Analyzing Climate-Related Financial Risk
Climate transition scenarios clarify climate-related risks to our economy and financial system. This paper summarizes key results of Canada-relevant scenarios developed in a pilot project on climate risk by the Bank of Canada and the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions. -
Housing demand in Canada: A novel approach to classifying mortgaged homebuyers
We introduce a novel approach to categorize mortgaged homebuyers into first-time homebuyers, repeat homebuyers and investors. We show how these groups contribute to activity in Canadian housing markets, and we analyze the differences in their demographic and financial characteristics.