Credit and credit aggregates

• News-Driven International Credit Cycles

  Staff Working Paper 2021-66 Galip Kemal Ozhan

  This paper examines the implications of positive news about future asset values that turn out to be incorrect at a later date in an open economy model with banking. The model captures the patterns of bank credit and current account dynamics in Spain between 2000 and 2010. The model finds that the use of unconventional policies leads to a milder bust.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Economic models, Financial stability, Recent economic and financial developments, Sectoral balance sheet JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, F, F3, F32, F4, F41, G, G1, G15, G2, G21
• September 24, 2021

  Monitoring payment deferrals during the COVID-19 pandemic—update, July 2021

  Geneviève Vallée

  In the initial stages of the COVID-19 pandemic, Canada’s financial institutions allowed households to defer payments on a range of loans. With nearly all of these deferrals having expired, we provide a final update of how these loans have performed through to July 2021.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Hub articles Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Credit and credit aggregates

• Can the characteristics of new mortgages predict borrowers’ financial stress? Insights from the 2014 oil price decline

  Staff Analytical Note 2021-22 Olga Bilyk, Ken Chow, Yang Xu

  We study the relationship between characteristics of new mortgages and borrowers’ financial stress in Canada’s energy-intensive regions following the 2014 collapse in oil prices. We find that borrowers with limited home equity were more likely to have difficulty repaying debt.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial stability, Housing JEL Code(s): C, C2, C25, D, D1, D14, G, G2, G21, G5, G51, R, R2, R21

• Household financial vulnerabilities and physical climate risks

  Staff Analytical Note 2021-19 Thibaut Duprey, Colin Jones, Callie Symmers, Geneviève Vallée

  Natural disasters occur more often than before, potentially exposing households to financial distress. We study the intersection between household financial vulnerabilities and severe weather events.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Climate change, Credit and credit aggregates, Financial stability, Housing, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): C, C2, C21, C3, C38, D, D1, D14, Q, Q5, Q54

• Analyzing supply and demand for business loans using microdata from the Senior Loan Officer Survey

  Staff Analytical Note 2021-13 Dylan Hogg

  Both supply and demand factors help determine the level of business lending in the economy, but most data show only their combined effect on prices and quantities. Using the Bank of Canada’s Senior Loan Officer Survey microdata on financial institutions’ lending conditions and demand, we separate supply from demand effects.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Financial institutions, Financial stability JEL Code(s): D, D2, D22, G, G0, G01, G2

• An Optimal Macroprudential Policy Mix for Segmented Credit Markets

  Staff Working Paper 2021-31 Jelena Zivanovic

  How can macroprudential policy and monetary policy stabilize segmented credit markets? Is there a trade-off between financial stability and price stability? I use a theoretical model to evaluate the performance of alternative policies and find the optimal mix of macroprudential and monetary policy in response to aggregate shocks.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Credit and credit aggregates, Credit risk management, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies JEL Code(s): E, E3, E30, E4, E44, E5, E50

• Can regulating bank capital help prevent and mitigate financial downturns?

  Staff Analytical Note 2021-12 Alejandro García, Josef Schroth

  Countercyclical capital buffers are regulatory measures developed in response to the global financial crisis of 2008–09. This note focuses on how time-varying capital buffers can improve financial stability in Canada

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Credit and credit aggregates, Credit risk management, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, Lender of last resort JEL Code(s): E, E1, E13, E3, E32, E4, E44
• May 21, 2021

  Monitoring payment deferrals during the COVID-19 pandemic—update, March 2021

  Geneviève Vallée

  In the initial stages of the COVID-19 pandemic, Canada’s financial institutions allowed households to defer payments on a range of loans. With most of these deferrals having expired, we present updated details of how these loans have performed through to March 2021.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Hub articles Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Credit and credit aggregates

• COVID-19’s impact on the financial health of Canadian businesses: An initial assessment

  Staff Analytical Note 2021-8 Timothy Grieder, Mikael Khan, Juan Ortega, Callie Symmers

  Despite COVID-19 challenges, bold policy measures in Canada have helped businesses manage cash flow pressures and kept insolvency filings low. But the impact of the pandemic has been uneven, and the financial health of some firms may further deteriorate over the next year.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Credit and credit aggregates, Financial stability, Firm dynamics, Recent economic and financial developments, Sectoral balance sheet JEL Code(s): G, G3, G31, G32, G33, G38

• Optimal Monetary and Macroprudential Policies

  Staff Working Paper 2021-21 Josef Schroth

  Optimal coordination of monetary and macroprudential policies implies higher risk weights on (safe) bonds any time that banks are required to hold additional capital buffers. Coordination also implies a somewhat tighter monetary-policy stance whenever such capital buffers are released.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, Inflation targets, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, E6, E60, G, G2, G21, G28