Central bank research

• Predicting the Demand for Central Bank Digital Currency: A Structural Analysis with Survey Data

  Staff Working Paper 2021-65 Jiaqi Li

  How much of a CBDC would Canadian households want to hold, and what design features of a CBDC would they care about?

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Digital currencies and fintech JEL Code(s): E, E5, E50, E58
• December 15, 2021

  Building on success

  Speech summary Tiff Macklem Empire Club of Canada Toronto, Ontario

  Governor Tiff Macklem speaks about the Bank of Canada’s monetary policy framework review and the agreement between the Government of Canada and the Bank to renew the 2 percent inflation target.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Speech summaries Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Credibility, Expectations, Inflation and prices, Inflation targets, Labour markets, Monetary policy, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Monetary policy communications, Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy implementation, Recent economic and financial developments
• December 15, 2021

  Our monetary policy framework: Continuity, clarity and commitment

  Remarks (delivered virtually) Tiff Macklem Empire Club of Canada Toronto, Ontario

  Governor Tiff Macklem discusses the Bank of Canada’s renewed monetary policy framework. He reviews Canada’s experience with flexible inflation targeting and explains why the Bank and the Government of Canada agreed to renew the 2 percent inflation target.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Credibility, Expectations, Inflation and prices, Inflation targets, Labour markets, Monetary policy, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Monetary policy communications, Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy implementation, Recent economic and financial developments
• November 23, 2021

  Checking up on Canada’s financial system

  Speech summary Paul Beaudry Ontario Securities Commission Toronto, Ontario

  Deputy Governor Paul Beaudry speaks about the strength and resilience of the financial system throughout the COVID-19 pandemic and economic recovery. He also outlines key vulnerabilities and risks going forward.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Speech summaries Research Topic(s): Asset pricing, Central bank research, Climate change, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Financial institutions, Financial stability, Housing, Interest rates
• November 23, 2021

  Financial stability through the pandemic and beyond

  Remarks (delivered virtually) Paul Beaudry OSC Dialogue, Ontario Securities Commission Toronto, Ontario

  Deputy Governor Paul Beaudry provides an update on financial vulnerabilities and risks in Canada, including those stemming from the COVID-19 pandemic.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Research Topic(s): Asset pricing, Central bank research, Climate change, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Financial institutions, Financial stability, Housing, Interest rates

• Evaluating the Effects of Forward Guidance and Large-scale Asset Purchases

  Staff Working Paper 2021-54 Xu Zhang

  I propose a novel method to identify and estimate the macroeconomic effects of forward guidance and large-scale asset purchases (LSAP) for each FOMC announcement. I find that LSAP is more important than forward guidance in influencing output and inflation. LSAP puts upward pressure on short-term yields, so it should always be used in conjunction with forward guidance.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Central bank research, Econometric and statistical methods, Interest rates JEL Code(s): E, E5, G, G0

• Fiscal and Monetary Stabilization Policy at the Zero Lower Bound: Consequences of Limited Foresight

  Staff Working Paper 2021-51 Michael Woodford, Yinxi Xie

  How do outcomes of monetary and fiscal stabilization policies at the zero lower bound change when decision makers have finite planning horizons in the economy? We explore the effects of limited foresight on policy tools and the interaction between monetary and fiscal policy.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Central bank research, Fiscal policy, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E6, E63, E7

• The Bank of Canada’s “Horse Race” of Alternative Monetary Policy Frameworks: Some Interim Results from Model Simulations

  Staff Discussion Paper 2021-13 José Dorich, Rhys R. Mendes, Yang Zhang

  Bank of Canada staff are running a “horse race” of alternative monetary policy frameworks in the lead-up to 2021 renewal of the Bank’s monetary policy framework. This paper summarizes some interim results of model simulations from their research.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Economic models, Inflation targets, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E2, E27, E3, E4, E5, E52, E58

• Cash and COVID-19: The impact of the second wave in Canada

  Staff Discussion Paper 2021-12 Heng Chen, Walter Engert, Marie-Hélène Felt, Kim Huynh, Gradon Nicholls, Daneal O’Habib, Julia Zhu

  The COVID-19 pandemic significantly increased the demand for cash. Cash in circulation increased sharply from March through December 2020, particularly in the early months of this period. Although use of electronic methods of payment also increased significantly, cash use for payments remains high for low-value transactions and among certain demographic groups.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Bank notes, Central bank research, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Digital currencies and fintech, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C1, C12, C9, E, E4, O, O5, O54

• Stressed but not Helpless: Strategic Behaviour of Banks Under Adverse Market Conditions

  Staff Working Paper 2021-35 Grzegorz Halaj, Sofia Priazhkina

  Our stress-testing tool considers banks under stress that can strategically manage their balance sheets. Using confidential Canadian supervisory data, we assess whether bank behaviour to maximize shareholder value can amplify a hypothetical stress scenario.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Economic models, Financial institutions, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies JEL Code(s): C, C6, C63, C7, C72, G, G2, G21