E23 - Production

• Estimating Large-Dimensional Connectedness Tables: The Great Moderation Through the Lens of Sectoral Spillovers

  Staff Working Paper 2021-37 Felix Brunner, Ruben Hipp

  Understanding the size of sectoral links is crucial to predicting the impact of a crisis on the whole economy. We show that statistical learning techniques substantially outperform traditional estimation techniques when measuring large networks of these links.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, C5, C52, E, E2, E23, E27

• Potential output and the neutral rate in Canada: 2021 update

  Staff Analytical Note 2021-6 Dany Brouillette, Guyllaume Faucher, Martin Kuncl, Austin McWhirter, Youngmin Park

  We expect potential output growth to be higher than in the October 2020 reassessment. By 2024, growth will be slightly above its average growth from 2010 to 2019. We assess that the Canadian nominal neutral rate continues to lie in the range of 1.75 to 2.75 percent.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Economic models, Interest rates, Labour markets, Monetary policy, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E2, E23, E24, E3, E37, E4, E43, E5, E52

• Allocative Efficiency and the Productivity Slowdown

  Staff Working Paper 2021-1 Lin Shao, Rongsheng Tang

  In our analysis of the US productivity slowdown in the 1970s and 2000s, we find that a significant portion of this deceleration can be attributed to a lack of improvement in allocative efficiency across sectors. Our analysis further identifies increased sector-level volatility as a major contributor to this lack of improvement in allocative efficiency.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E2, E23, O, O4, O47