Posts

• Fiscal and Monetary Stabilization Policy at the Zero Lower Bound: Consequences of Limited Foresight

  Staff Working Paper 2021-51 Michael Woodford, Yinxi Xie

  How do outcomes of monetary and fiscal stabilization policies at the zero lower bound change when decision makers have finite planning horizons in the economy? We explore the effects of limited foresight on policy tools and the interaction between monetary and fiscal policy.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Central bank research, Fiscal policy, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E6, E63, E7
• October 18, 2021

  Business Outlook Survey―Third Quarter of 2021

  Firms anticipate stronger demand as pandemic conditions improve, according to results from the Business Outlook Survey in the third quarter of 2021. However, many businesses face supply constraints that will limit their sales and put upward pressure on their costs. Together, these demand pressures and supply challenges are driving widespread plans to invest, hire staff and increase prices.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Business Outlook Survey
• October 18, 2021

  Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations—Third Quarter of 2021

  This survey took place in the third quarter of 2021, after most Canadians had been fully vaccinated against COVID-19 and as the Delta variant was beginning to spread more broadly in Canada. Results suggest that consumers plan to increase their spending significantly but remain cautious because of the Delta variant. Canadians think inflation will be higher in the near term due to supply disruptions, but they do not expect this situation to last. Although expectations for labour market conditions improved again, visible minorities, Indigenous people and people with disabilities are showing signs of vulnerabilities. Canadians are not expecting significant wage gains despite recent improvements in the labour market and perceptions of higher inflation.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations
• October 18, 2021

  RPAC Meeting (October 18 and 20, 2021)

  Topics: Registration process, record keeping, annual reporting and information requests

  Content Type(s): Meetings Source(s): Retail Payments Advisory Committee

• The impact of the Bank of Canada’s Government Bond Purchase Program

  Staff Analytical Note 2021-23 Rohan Arora, Sermin Gungor, Joe Nesrallah, Guillaume Ouellet Leblanc, Jonathan Witmer

  We assess the response of Government of Canada bond yields to the Bank of Canada’s initial announcement of the Government Bond Purchase Program (GBPP) as well as to the Bank’s later GBPP purchase operations.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Monetary policy, Monetary policy implementation, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E58, E6, E63
• October 13, 2021

  Climate change and the Bank of Canada

  We’re taking steps to better understand the impacts of climate change on the economy and to reduce our environmental footprint.

  Content Type(s): Background materials Topic(s): Climate change

• Systemic Risk and Portfolio Diversification: Evidence from the Futures Market

  Staff Working Paper 2021-50 Radoslav Raykov

  This paper explores how the Canadian futures market contributed to banks’ systemic risk during the 2008 financial crisis. It finds that core banks as a whole traded against the periphery, in this way increasing their risk of simultaneous losses.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial markets JEL Code(s): G, G1, G10, G2, G20

• Job Applications and Labour Market Flows

  Staff Working Paper 2021-49 Serdar Birinci, Kurt See, Shu Lin Wee

  Although the number of job applications has risen, job-finding rates remain relatively unchanged while job-separation rates have significantly declined. Rather than raising the probability of finding a job, we find that a rise in applications raises the probability of finding a good match, as evidenced by the decline in separation rates.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Labour markets, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, J, J6, J63, J64
• October 12, 2021

  CFIF Meeting (October 12, 2021)

  Content Type(s): Meetings Source(s): Canadian Fixed-Income Forum
• October 7, 2021

  The long and short of it: A balanced vision for the international monetary and financial system

  Remarks (delivered virtually) Tiff Macklem Council on Foreign Relations Washington, D.C.

  Governor Tiff Macklem advocates for global coordination to strengthen the international monetary and financial system.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Development economics, Exchange rate regimes, Financial system regulation and policies, Foreign reserves management, International financial markets, International topics, Trade integration