Assessing global potential output growth and the US neutral rate: April 2021

Staff Analytical Note 2021-5 (English)
Thomas J. Carter, Xin Scott Chen, Ali Jaffery, Christopher Hajzler, Jonathan Lachaine, Peter Shannon, Subrata Sarker, Graeme Westwood, Beiling Yan
April 2021
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Available as: PDF

Last updated: March 2022

We expect global potential output growth to rise to 3 percent by 2022. Relative to the last assessment in October 2020, potential output growth has been revised up across all the regions. The range of the US neutral rate remains unchanged relative to the autumn 2020 assessment.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes
Topic(s): Interest rates, Monetary policy, Potential output, Productivity
JEL Code(s): E, E1, E2, E4, E5, F, F0, O, O4

DOI: https://doi.org/10.34989/san-2021-5