Staff research, Publications
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Assessing Global Potential Output Growth: October 2020
This paper presents updated estimates of potential output growth for the global economy through 2022. Global potential output growth is expected to decline sharply in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic and recover partially by the end of the projection horizon of the October 2020 Monetary Policy Report. -
November 9, 2020
Quarterly Financial Report - Third Quarter 2020
Quarterly Financial Report - Third Quarter 2020 - For the period ended September 30, 2020
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How Should Unemployment Insurance Vary over the Business Cycle?
Should unemployment benefits be more generous during economic downturns? The optimal amount and duration of benefit payments ultimately depend on the demographic and wealth characteristics of benefit recipients. -
Earnings Dynamics and Intergenerational Transmission of Skill
How are your past, current and future earnings related to those of your parents? We explore this by using 37 years of Canadian tax data on two generations. -
Understanding Trend Inflation Through the Lens of the Goods and Services Sectors
The goods and services sectors have experienced considerably different dynamics over the past three decades. Our goal in this paper is to understand how such contrasting behaviors at the sectoral level affect the aggregate level of trend inflation dynamics. -
Corporate investment and monetary policy transmission in Canada
Unexpected changes in interest rates lead small firms to materially change their investment rate. Large firms, in contrast, show a smaller response. This suggests both that financial conditions are an important channel for transmitting monetary policy and that firm characteristics can help us better understand fluctuations in business investment. -
Production Networks and the Propagation of Commodity Price Shocks
We examine the macro implications of commodity price shocks in a model with multiple production sectors that are interconnected within a commodity-exporting small open economy. -
Outside Investor Access to Top Management: Market Monitoring versus Stock Price Manipulation
Should managers be paid in stock options if they provide stock-market participants with information about the firm? This paper studies how firm owners trade off the benefit of stock-price incentives and better-informed market participants against the cost of potential stock-price manipulation. -
October 28, 2020
Monetary Policy Report – October 2020
The Bank expects Canada’s economy to grow by almost 4 percent on average in 2021 and 2022, following a decline of about 5 ½ percent in 2020.