Economic models

• Online Privacy and Information Disclosure by Consumers

  Staff Working Paper 2019-22 Shota Ichihashi

  A consumer discloses information to a multi-product seller, which learns about the consumer’s preferences, sets prices, and makes product recommendations. While the consumer benefits from accurate product recommendations, the seller may use the information to price discriminate.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models JEL Code(s): D, D8, D82, D83

• A Structural Model of the Global Oil Market

  Staff Analytical Note 2019-17 Reinhard Ellwanger

  This note presents a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model of the global oil market. The model identifies four types of shocks with different economic interpretations: oil supply shocks, oil-market-specific demand shocks, storage demand shocks and shocks to global economic growth.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Economic models JEL Code(s): Q, Q4, Q41, Q43

• Composite Likelihood Estimation of an Autoregressive Panel Probit Model with Random Effects

  Staff Working Paper 2019-16 Kerem Tuzcuoglu

  Modeling and estimating persistent discrete data can be challenging. In this paper, we use an autoregressive panel probit model where the autocorrelation in the discrete variable is driven by the autocorrelation in the latent variable. In such a non-linear model, the autocorrelation in an unobserved variable results in an intractable likelihood containing high-dimensional integrals.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Credit risk management, Econometric and statistical methods, Economic models JEL Code(s): C, C2, C23, C25, C5, C58, G, G2, G24

• The Neutral Rate in Canada: 2019 Update

  Staff Analytical Note 2019-11 Thomas J. Carter, Xin Scott Chen, José Dorich

  This note provides an update on Bank of Canada staff’s assessment of the Canadian neutral rate. The neutral rate is the policy rate needed to keep output at its potential level and inflation at target once the effects of any cyclical shocks have dissipated. This medium- to long-run concept serves as a benchmark for gauging the degree of monetary stimulus provided by a given policy setting.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Economic models, Interest rates, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E4, E40, E43, E5, E50, E52, E58, F, F4, F41

• Labor Mobility in a Monetary Union

  Staff Working Paper 2019-15 Daniela Hauser, Martin Seneca

  The optimal currency literature has stressed the importance of labor mobility as a precondition for the success of monetary unions. But only a few studies formally link labor mobility to macroeconomic adjustment and policy. In this paper, we study macroeconomic dynamics and optimal monetary policy in an economy with cyclical labor flows across two distinct regions that share trade links and a common monetary framework.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models, Labour markets, Monetary policy framework, Regional economic developments JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E5, E52, F, F4

• Bond Funds and Fixed-Income Market Liquidity: A Stress-Testing Approach

  Technical Report No. 115 Rohan Arora, Guillaume Bédard-Pagé, Guillaume Ouellet Leblanc, Ryan Shotlander

  This report provides a detailed technical description of a stress test model for investment funds called Ceto.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Economic models, Financial institutions, Financial markets, Financial stability JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12, G14, G2, G20, G23

• Firm-level Investment Under Imperfect Capital Markets in Ukraine

  Staff Working Paper 2019-14 Oleksandr Shcherbakov

  This paper develops and estimates a model of firm-level fixed capital investment when firms face borrowing constraints.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Economic models, Firm dynamics JEL Code(s): C, C6, C61, C63, D, D2, D24, G, G3, G31

• The Trend Unemployment Rate in Canada: Searching for the Unobservable

  Staff Working Paper 2019-13 Dany Brouillette, Marie-Noëlle Robitaille, Laurence Savoie-Chabot, Pierre St-Amant, Bassirou Gueye, Elise Nelson

  In this paper, we assess several methods that have been used to measure the Canadian trend unemployment rate (TUR). We also consider improvements and extensions to some existing methods.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models, Inflation and prices, Labour markets JEL Code(s): C, C5, C52, C53, E, E2, E24, E27

• Do Survey Expectations of Stock Returns Reflect Risk Adjustments?

  Staff Working Paper 2019-11 Klaus Adam, Dmitry Matveev, Stefan Nagel

  Motivated by the observation that survey expectations of stock returns are inconsistent with rational return expectations under real-world probabilities, we investigate whether alternative expectations hypotheses entertained in the literature on asset pricing are consistent with the survey evidence.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing, Economic models, Financial markets JEL Code(s): G, G1, G10, G12

• Limiting Sender’s Information in Bayesian Persuasion

  Staff Working Paper 2019-10 Shota Ichihashi

  This paper studies how the outcome of Bayesian persuasion depends on a sender’s information. I study a game in which, prior to the sender’s information disclosure, the designer can restrict the most informative signal that the sender can generate.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models JEL Code(s): D, D8, D82, D83