Staff research, Publications
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The Secular Decline of Forecasted Interest Rates
Canadian interest rates show a secular decline since the 1980s. Long-term survey-based forecasts of interest rates also declined, but less so and were more gradual. Our model-based estimates show an endpoint shifting over time in three phases: a decline between 1990 and 1995, a period of stability between 1996 and 2007, and a further decline since 2008. The current endpoint estimate remains clouded with uncertainty; this is an active area of research. -
January 9, 2019
Monetary Policy Report – January 2019
The Bank projects that Canadian economic growth will slow to 1.7 per cent this year before rebounding to 2.1 per cent in 2020.
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