Posts

• Corporate Debt Composition and Business Cycles

  Staff Working Paper 2019-5 Jelena Zivanovic

  Based on empirical evidence, I propose a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with two financial sectors to analyze the role of corporate debt composition (bank versus bond financing) in the transmission of economic shocks.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Financial institutions, Financial markets, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E4, E44

• Price Caps in Canadian Bond Borrowing Markets

  Staff Analytical Note 2019-2 Léanne Berger-Soucy, Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, Adrian Walton

  Price controls, or caps, can lead to shortages, as 1970’s gasoline price controls illustrate. One million trades show that the market for borrowing bonds in Canada has an implicit price cap: traders are willing to pay no more than the overnight interest rate to borrow a bond. This suggests the probability of a shortage increases when interest rates are very low.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Financial markets JEL Code(s): G, G1, G10, G12

• Frictional Capital Reallocation I: Ex Ante Heterogeneity

  Staff Working Paper 2019-4 Randall Wright, Sylvia Xiaolin Xiao, Yu Zhu

  This paper studies dynamic general equilibrium models where firms trade capital in frictional markets. Gains from trade arise due to ex ante heterogeneity: some firms are better at investment, so they build capital in the primary market; others acquire it in the secondary market.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E2, E22, E4, E44

• Can Capital Deepening Explain the Global Decline in Labor’s Share?

  Staff Working Paper 2019-3 Andrew Glover, Jacob Short

  We estimate an aggregate elasticity of substitution between capital and labor near or below one, which implies that capital deepening cannot explain the global decline in labor's share. Our methodology derives from transition paths in the neo-classical growth model.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Firm dynamics, International topics, Labour markets JEL Code(s): E, E1, E13, E2, E22, E25, J, J3

• The Productivity Slowdown in Canada: An ICT Phenomenon?

  Staff Working Paper 2019-2 Jeffrey Mollins, Pierre St-Amant

  We ask whether a weaker contribution of information and communication technologies (ICT) to productivity growth could account for the productivity slowdown observed in Canada since the early 2000s. To answer this question, we consider several methods capturing channels through which ICT could affect aggregate productivity growth.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Productivity JEL Code(s): D, D2, D24, O, O4, O41, O47

• A Framework for Analyzing Monetary Policy in an Economy with E-money

  Staff Working Paper 2019-1 Yu Zhu, Scott Hendry

  This paper considers an economy where central-bank-issued fiat money competes with privately issued e-money. We study a policy-setting game between the central bank and the e-money issuer and find (1) the optimal monetary policy of the central bank depends on the policy of the private issuer and may deviate from the Friedman rule; (2) multiple equilibria may exist; (3) when the economy approaches a cashless state, the central bank’s optimal policy improves the market power of the e-money issuer and can lead to a discrete decrease in welfare and a discrete increase in inflation; and (4) first best cannot be achieved.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Digital currencies and fintech, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52

• The Secular Decline of Forecasted Interest Rates

  Staff Analytical Note 2019-1 Bruno Feunou, Jean-Sébastien Fontaine

  Canadian interest rates show a secular decline since the 1980s. Long-term survey-based forecasts of interest rates also declined, but less so and were more gradual. Our model-based estimates show an endpoint shifting over time in three phases: a decline between 1990 and 1995, a period of stability between 1996 and 2007, and a further decline since 2008. The current endpoint estimate remains clouded with uncertainty; this is an active area of research.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Financial markets, Interest rates JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, G, G1, G12
• January 10, 2019

  Bank of Canada publishes the Canadian Alternative Reference Rate Working Group principles for enhancements to fallback language

  The Bank of Canada today published the Canadian Alternative Reference Rate Working Group (CARR) principles for enhancements to fallback language for cash products.

  Content Type(s): Press, Market notices Source(s): Canadian Alternative Reference Rate Working Group
• January 9, 2019

  Monetary Policy Report Press Conference Opening Statement

  Opening statement Stephen S. Poloz Ottawa, Ontario

  Governor Stephen S. Poloz discusses key issues involved in the Governing Council’s deliberations about the policy rate decision and the MPR.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Opening statements
• January 9, 2019

  Bank of Canada maintains overnight rate target at 1 ¾ per cent

  Media Relations Ottawa, Ontario

  The Bank of Canada today maintained its target for the overnight rate at 1 ¾ per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 2 per cent and the deposit rate is 1 ½ per cent.

  Content Type(s): Press, Press releases