Staff research, Publications
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October 15, 2018
Business Outlook Survey—Autumn 2018
Responses to the autumn Business Outlook Survey indicate that near-term business prospects continue to be robust. Strong demand and elevated capacity pressures support firms’ investment and employment intentions. -
October 15, 2018
Senior Loan Officer Survey—Third Quarter of 2018
Household lending conditions were almost unchanged this quarter, while competition for corporate borrowers continues to drive an easing in business lending conditions. -
The Size and Destination of China’s Portfolio Outflows
The size of China’s financial system raises the possibility that the liberalization of its capital account could have a large effect on the global financial system. This paper provides a counterfactual scenario analysis that estimates what the size and direction of China’s overseas portfolio investments would have been in 2015 if China had had no restrictions on these outflows. -
Disaggregating Household Sensitivity to Monetary Policy by Expenditure Category
Because the Bank of Canada has started withdrawing monetary stimulus, monitoring the transmission of these changes to monetary policy will be important. Subcomponents of consumption and housing will likely respond differently to a monetary policy tightening, both in terms of the aggregate effect and timing. -
September 30, 2018
Research Update - September 2018
This monthly newsletter features the latest research publications by Bank of Canada economists including external publications and working papers published on the Bank of Canada’s website. -
September 28, 2018
The benefits of freer trade
Freer trade lowers prices and boosts economies, yet not everyone benefits equally. Fair policies are essential for balanced growth and widespread prosperity. -
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Monetary Policy Uncertainty: A Tale of Two Tails
We document a strong asymmetry in the evolution of federal funds rate expectations and map this observed asymmetry into measures of monetary policy uncertainty. We show that periods of monetary policy tightening and easing are distinctly related to downside (policy rate is higher than expected) and upside (policy rate is lower than expected) uncertainty. -
Have Liquidity and Trading Activity in the Canadian Corporate Bond Market Deteriorated?
Since 2010, the liquidity of corporate bonds has improved on average, while their trading activity has remained stable. We find that the liquidity and trading activity of riskier bonds or bonds issued by firms in different sectors have been stable. However, the liquidity and trading activity of bonds issued by banks have improved. We observe short-lived episodes of deterioration in liquidity and trading activity.