Recent economic and financial developments

• Interest Rate and Renewal Risk for Mortgages

  Staff Analytical Note 2018-18 Olga Bilyk, Cameron MacDonald, Brian Peterson

  In this note, we explore two types of risk faced by holders of mortgages and home equity lines of credit (HELOCs) in the context of rising interest rates: interest rate risk and renewal risk.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Financial institutions, Interest rates, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): D, D1, E, E4, E5, G, G2, G21, G28

• Measuring Vulnerabilities in the Non-Financial Corporate Sector Using Industry- and Firm-Level Data

  Staff Analytical Note 2018-17 Timothy Grieder, Michal Lipsitz

  Aggregate non-financial corporate debt-to-GDP has been growing rapidly in recent years and is at an all-time high. This growth began in 2011 and accelerated as the oil price shock affected the Canadian economy.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Credit and credit aggregates, Financial stability, Monetary and financial indicators, Recent economic and financial developments, Sectoral balance sheet JEL Code(s): G, G0, G01, G3, G32
• May 31, 2018

  A Progress Report on the Economy

  Remarks Sylvain Leduc Association des économistes québécois and CFA Québec Québec, Québec

  Deputy Governor Sylvain Leduc discusses the issues that led Governing Council to hold the policy interest rate at 1.25 per cent in their May 30 decision.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Interest rates, Labour markets, Monetary policy, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Recent economic and financial developments

• Applying the Wage-Common to Canadian Provinces

  Staff Analytical Note 2018-16 Jonathan Lachaine

  As at the national level, available sources of hourly wage data for Canadian provinces sometimes send conflicting signals about wage growth. This note has two objectives. First, we develop a common measure of provincial wages (the provincial wage-common) to better capture the underlying wage pressures, reflecting the overall trend across all data sources.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Labour markets, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): C, C3, C38, J, J3

• Customer Liquidity Provision in Canadian Bond Markets

  Staff Analytical Note 2018-12 Corey Garriott, Jesse Johal

  This analytical note assesses the prevalence of liquidity provision by institutional investors in Canadian bonds. We find that the practice is not prevalent in Canada. Customer liquidity provision is more prevalent for less liquid bonds, on days when liquidity is already expensive or when there are larger trading volumes. In our interpretation, Canadian dealers draw on customer liquidity as a supplementary source of liquidity and only when necessary, given its cost.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial markets, Financial system regulation and policies, Market structure and pricing, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): G, G1, G14, G2, G20, L, L1
• May 1, 2018

  Canada’s Economy and Household Debt: How Big Is the Problem?

  Remarks Stephen S. Poloz Yellowknife Chamber of Commerce Yellowknife, Northwest Territories

  Governor Poloz talks about household debt and how it will affect Canada’s economy and monetary policy for years.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Research Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Financial services, Financial stability, Interest rates, Monetary policy, Recent economic and financial developments
• April 25, 2018

  Opening Statement before the Standing Senate Committee on Banking, Trade and Commerce

  Opening statement Stephen S. Poloz Standing Senate Committee on Banking, Trade and Commerce Ottawa, Ontario

  Good afternoon, Mr. Chairman and committee members. Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins and I are pleased to be back before you today to discuss the Bank’s Monetary Policy Report (MPR), which we published last week. When we were last here at the beginning of November, we saw signs that the Canadian economy was moderating after an […]

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Opening statements Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Monetary policy, Monetary policy transmission, Recent economic and financial developments
• April 23, 2018

  Opening Statement before the House of Commons Standing Committee on Finance

  Opening statement Stephen S. Poloz House of Commons Standing Committee on Finance Ottawa, Ontario

  Good afternoon, Mr. Chairman and committee members. Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins and I are pleased to be with you today to discuss the Bank’s Monetary Policy Report (MPR), which we published last week. At the time of our last appearance in October, we saw signs that the Canadian economy was moderating after an exceptionally strong […]

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Opening statements Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Monetary policy, Monetary policy transmission, Recent economic and financial developments
• March 22, 2018

  Financial Stability: Taking Care of Unfinished Business

  Remarks Carolyn A. Wilkins Rotman School of Management conference Toronto, Ontario

  Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn A. Wilkins discusses three areas in which work remains to be done to improve financial stability.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Research Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Digital currencies and fintech, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, Monetary policy framework, Recent economic and financial developments

• Did U.S. Consumers Respond to the 2014–2015 Oil Price Shock? Evidence from the Consumer Expenditure Survey

  Staff Working Paper 2018-13 Patrick Alexander, Louis Poirier

  The impact of oil price shocks on the U.S. economy is a topic of considerable debate. In this paper, we examine the response of U.S. consumers to the 2014–2015 negative oil price shock using representative survey data from the Consumer Expenditure Survey.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Domestic demand and components, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): D, D1, D12, E, E2, E21, Q, Q4, Q43