Posts

• Asymmetric Risks to the Economic Outlook Arising from Financial System Vulnerabilities

  Staff Analytical Note 2018-6 Thibaut Duprey

  When financial system vulnerabilities are elevated, they can give rise to asymmetric risks to the economic outlook. To illustrate this, I consider the economic outlook presented in the Bank of Canada’s October 2017 Monetary Policy Report in the context of two key financial system vulnerabilities: high levels of household indebtedness and housing market imbalances.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, Monetary and financial indicators, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): C, C0, C01, C1, C11, C15, E, E1, E17, E3, E32, E37, E4, E44, E47, E5, E58, E6, E66, G, G0, G01, G1, G18
• March 13, 2018

  Canadian economy carrying untapped potential, Bank of Canada Governor Poloz says

  Media Relations Kingston, Ontario

  The Canadian economy is carrying untapped potential that could prolong the expansion without causing inflation pressures, Governor Stephen S. Poloz said today. In a lecture at Queen’s University, Governor Poloz said that the Canadian economy is currently in the phase of the economic cycle where companies need to expand capacity to meet rising demand. “Growing […]

  Content Type(s): Press, Press releases
• March 13, 2018

  Today’s Labour Market and the Future of Work

  Remarks Stephen S. Poloz Chancellor David Dodge Lecture in Public Finance 2018 Kingston, Ontario

  Governor Stephen S. Poloz discusses the untapped potential in Canada’s labour market and how it extends into the workforce of tomorrow.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Domestic demand and components, Labour markets, Monetary policy, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Potential output

• Can Media and Text Analytics Provide Insights into Labour Market Conditions in China?

  Staff Working Paper 2018-12 Jeannine Bailliu, Xinfen Han, Mark Kruger, Yu-Hsien Liu, Sri Thanabalasingam

  The official Chinese labour market indicators have been seen as problematic, given their small cyclical movement and their only-partial capture of the labour force. In our paper, we build a monthly Chinese labour market conditions index (LMCI) using text analytics applied to mainland Chinese-language newspapers over the period from 2003 to 2017.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, International topics, Labour markets JEL Code(s): C, C3, C38, C5, C55, E, E2, E24, E27

• Blockchain Revolution Without the Blockchain

  Staff Analytical Note 2018-5 Hanna Halaburda

  The technology behind blockchain has attracted a lot of attention. However, this technology is for the most part not well understood. There is no consensus on what benefits it may bring or on how it may fail.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Digital currencies and fintech, Recent economic and financial developments, Service sector JEL Code(s): D, D8, G, G2, O, O3, O33

• The Macroeconomic Effects of Quantitative Easing in the Euro Area: Evidence from an Estimated DSGE Model

  Staff Working Paper 2018-11 Stefan Hohberger, Romanos Priftis, Lukas Vogel

  This paper estimates an open-economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with Bayesian techniques to analyse the macroeconomic effects of the European Central Bank’s (ECB’s) quantitative easing (QE) programme. Using data on government debt stocks and yields across maturities, we identify the parameter governing portfolio adjustment in the private sector.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models, Interest rates, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, E5, E52, F, F4, F41

• Dismiss the Gap? A Real-Time Assessment of the Usefulness of Canadian Output Gaps in Forecasting Inflation

  Staff Working Paper 2018-10 Lise Pichette, Marie-Noëlle Robitaille, Mohanad Salameh, Pierre St-Amant

  We use a new real-time database for Canada to study various output gap measures. This includes recently developed measures based on models incorporating many variables as inputs (and therefore requiring real-time data for many variables).

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Inflation and prices, Potential output JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, E, E3, E37
• March 8, 2018

  Canada’s Economic Expansion: A Progress Report

  Remarks Timothy Lane Greater Vancouver Board of Trade Vancouver, British Columbia

  Deputy Governor Tim Lane discusses the issues that led Governing Council to hold the policy interest rate at 1.25 per cent in their March 7 decision.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks
• March 8, 2018

  $10 Bank Note Unveil

  Due to poor weather and power outages in the Halifax area, today’s official unveiling event for the new $10 bank note may experience technical difficulties.

  Content Type(s): Press, Announcements
• March 8, 2018

  New $10 bank note featuring Viola Desmond unveiled on International Women’s Day

  Media Relations Halifax, Nova Scotia

  Finance Minister Bill Morneau and Bank of Canada Governor Stephen S. Poloz today unveiled the new $10 bank note featuring Viola Desmond during a ceremony at the Halifax Central Library.

  Content Type(s): Press, Press releases