Posts

• 2017 Methods-of-Payment Survey Report

  Staff Discussion Paper 2018-17 Christopher Henry, Kim Huynh, Angelika Welte

  Cash use is declining while contactless and mobile payments are on the rise.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Bank notes, Digital currencies and fintech, Financial services JEL Code(s): D, D8, D83, E, E4, E41

• Should the Central Bank Issue E-money?

  Staff Working Paper 2018-58 Charles M. Kahn, Francisco Rivadeneyra, Tsz-Nga Wong

  Should a central bank take over the provision of e-money, a circulable electronic liability? We discuss how e-money technology changes the tradeoff between public and private provision, and the tradeoff between e-money and a central bank's existing liabilities like bank notes and reserves.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Bank notes, Digital currencies and fintech, Financial services, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): E, E4, E42, E5, E51, E58

• The Cost of the Government Bond Buyback and Switch Programs in Canada

  Staff Analytical Note 2018-41 Bo Young Chang, Jun Yang, Parker Liu

  This note examines the costs of the Government of Canada bond buyback and switch programs between 1998 and 2016. Our analysis indicates that the auction design of the buyback program was effective in retiring government debt with minimal costs resulting from bid shading in auctions and price impact.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Debt management JEL Code(s): D, D4, D44

• Fundamental Drivers of Existing Home Sales in Canada

  Staff Discussion Paper 2018-16 Taylor Webley

  Existing home sales’ share of Canada’s economic pie has been rising in recent years, and variation around this trend has resulted in outsized contributions to changes in real gross domestic product (GDP). In this context, we use a cointegration framework to estimate the level of resale activity across the Canadian provinces that is supported by fundamentals—namely, full-time employment, housing affordability and migration flows—to help look through the volatility.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Economic models, Housing JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, C23, E, E2, E27, R, R2, R21

• Alternative Futures for Government of Canada Debt Management

  Staff Discussion Paper 2018-15 Corey Garriott, Sophie Lefebvre, Guillaume Nolin, Francisco Rivadeneyra, Adrian Walton

  This paper presents four blue-sky ideas for lowering the cost of the Government of Canada’s debt without increasing the debt’s risk profile. We argue that each idea would improve the secondary-market liquidity of government debt, thereby increasing the demand for government bonds and thus lowering their cost at issuance.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Debt management, Financial markets, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12, G2, G24, H, H6, H63

• GDP by Industry in Real Time: Are Revisions Well Behaved?

  Staff Analytical Note 2018-40 Patrick Rizzetto

  The monthly data for real gross domestic product (GDP) by industry are used extensively in real time both to ground the Bank of Canada’s monitoring of economic activity and in the Bank’s nowcasting tools, making these data one of the most important high-frequency time series for Canadian nowcasting.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Central bank research, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, C8, C82, E, E0, E01
• December 6, 2018

  Year-End Economic Progress Report: Financial Vulnerabilities in Focus

  Remarks Stephen S. Poloz CFA Toronto Toronto, Ontario

  Governor Poloz talks about how household debt levels and housing markets played a role in the latest interest-rate decision.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Financial stability, Housing, Monetary policy, Recent economic and financial developments
• December 6, 2018

  Governor Poloz speaks on financial vulnerabilities and risks to the economy

  Speech summary Stephen S. Poloz CFA - Toronto Toronto, Ontario

  In his final speech of 2018, Governor Stephen S. Poloz discusses the vulnerabilities and risks in Canada’s financial system as well as Canadian and global economic developments. He explains how all this was taken into account in the December interest rate decision.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Speech summaries Topic(s): Financial stability, Housing, Monetary policy, Recent economic and financial developments

• The Impact of Surprising Monetary Policy Announcements on Exchange Rate Volatility

  Staff Analytical Note 2018-39 Adam Albogatchiev, Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, Jabir Sandhu, Reginald Xie

  We identify a few Bank of Canada press releases that had the largest immediate impact on the exchange rate market. We find that volatility increases after these releases, but the effect is short-lived and mostly dissipates after the first hour, on average. Beyond the first hour, the size of the effect is similar to what we observe for other economic releases, such as those for inflation or economic growth data.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Exchange rates, Financial markets, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, F, F3, F31, G, G1, G10, G12, G14, G15

• Does US or Canadian Macro News Drive Canadian Bond Yields?

  Staff Analytical Note 2018-38 Bruno Feunou, Rodrigo Sekkel, Morvan Nongni-Donfack

  We show that a large share of low-frequency (quarterly) movements in Canadian government bond yields can be explained by macroeconomic news, even though high-frequency (daily) changes are driven by other shocks. Furthermore, we show that US macro news—not domestic news— explains most of the quarterly variation in Canadian bond yields.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Financial markets, International topics, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, E, E4, E43