Recent economic and financial developments

• December 6, 2018

  Year-End Economic Progress Report: Financial Vulnerabilities in Focus

  Remarks Stephen S. Poloz CFA Toronto Toronto, Ontario

  Governor Poloz talks about how household debt levels and housing markets played a role in the latest interest-rate decision.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Research Topic(s): Financial stability, Housing, Monetary policy, Recent economic and financial developments
• December 6, 2018

  Governor Poloz speaks on financial vulnerabilities and risks to the economy

  Speech summary Stephen S. Poloz CFA - Toronto Toronto, Ontario

  In his final speech of 2018, Governor Stephen S. Poloz discusses the vulnerabilities and risks in Canada’s financial system as well as Canadian and global economic developments. He explains how all this was taken into account in the December interest rate decision.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Speech summaries Research Topic(s): Financial stability, Housing, Monetary policy, Recent economic and financial developments

• The Trade War in Numbers

  Staff Working Paper 2018-57 Karyne B. Charbonneau, Anthony Landry

  We build upon new developments in the international trade literature to isolate and quantify the long-run economic impacts of tariff changes on the United States and the global economy.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Recent economic and financial developments, Trade integration JEL Code(s): F, F1, F11, F13, F14, F15, F5, F50, F6, F62, F68

• The Impact of Recent Policy Changes on the Canadian Mortgage Market

  Staff Analytical Note 2018-35 Olga Bilyk, Maria teNyenhuis

  Recent policy changes are having a clear impact on the mortgage market. The number of new, highly indebted borrowers has fallen, and overall mortgage activity has slowed significantly.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Financial institutions, Interest rates, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): D, D1, E, E4, G, G2, G21, G28
• November 5, 2018

  Making Sense of Markets

  Remarks Stephen S. Poloz Canada–UK Chamber of Commerce London, United Kingdom

  Governor Poloz discusses how the Bank uses financial market information in its monetary policy.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Research Topic(s): Asset pricing, Financial markets, Interest rates, Monetary policy, Recent economic and financial developments
• October 31, 2018

  Opening Statement before the Standing Senate Committee on Banking, Trade and Commerce

  Opening statement Stephen S. Poloz Standing Senate Committee on Banking, Trade and Commerce Ottawa, Ontario

  Good afternoon, Mr. Chairman and committee members. Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins and I are pleased to be with you today to discuss the Bank’s Monetary Policy Report. At the time of our last appearance in April, our message was about the considerable economic progress that we had seen. We explained that after a lacklustre start […]

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Opening statements Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Monetary policy, Monetary policy transmission, Recent economic and financial developments

• Assessing Vulnerabilities in Emerging-Market Economies

  Staff Discussion Paper 2018-13 Tatjana Dahlhaus, Alexander Lam

  This paper introduces a new tool to monitor economic and financial vulnerabilities in emerging-market economies. We obtain vulnerability indexes for several early warning indicators covering 26 emerging markets from 1990 to 2017 and use them to monitor the evolution of vulnerabilities before, during and after an economic or financial crisis.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): International topics, Monetary and financial indicators, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): C, C8, C82, F, F3, F34, G, G0, G01, G1, G15
• October 30, 2018

  Opening Statement before the House of Commons Standing Committee on Finance

  Opening statement Stephen S. Poloz House of Commons Standing Committee on Finance Ottawa, Ontario

  Good afternoon, Mr. Chairman and committee members. Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins and I are pleased to be with you today to discuss the Bank’s Monetary Policy Report. At the time of our last appearance in April, our message was about the considerable economic progress that we had seen. We explained that after a lacklustre start […]

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Opening statements Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Monetary policy, Monetary policy transmission, Recent economic and financial developments

• Characterizing the Canadian Financial Cycle with Frequency Filtering Approaches

  Staff Analytical Note 2018-34 Andrew Lee-Poy

  In this note, I use two multivariate frequency filtering approaches to characterize the Canadian financial cycle by capturing fluctuations in the underlying variables with respect to a long-term trend. The first approach is a dynamically weighted composite, and the second is a stochastic cycle model.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial stability, Monetary and financial indicators, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): C, C0, C01, C1, C13, C14, C18, C3, C32, C5, C51, C52, E, E3, E32, E6, E66, G, G0, G01, G1, G18

• Introducing a Systematic Measure of Idiosyncratic Prices

  Staff Analytical Note 2018-33 Madigan Dockrill, Laurence Savoie-Chabot

  There is a risk that Bank of Canada staff may inadvertently be biased when analyzing inflation: when inflation surprises on the downside, staff might emphasize negative idiosyncratic factors. When inflation surprises on the upside, staff might emphasize the positive idiosyncratic factors.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31