Posts

• October 31, 2018

  Research Update - October 2018

  This monthly newsletter features the latest research publications by Bank of Canada economists including external publications and working papers published on the Bank of Canada’s website.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Research newsletters

• Evaluating the Bank of Canada Staff Economic Projections Using a New Database of Real-Time Data and Forecasts

  Staff Working Paper 2018-52 Julien Champagne, Guillaume Poulin-Bellisle, Rodrigo Sekkel

  We present a novel database of real-time data and forecasts from the Bank of Canada’s staff economic projections. We then provide a forecast evaluation for GDP growth and CPI inflation since 1982: we compare the staff forecasts with those from commonly used time-series models estimated with real-time data and with forecasts from other professional forecasters and provide standard bias tests.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Economic models, Inflation targets, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, E, E1, E17, E3, E37
• October 31, 2018

  Opening Statement before the Standing Senate Committee on Banking, Trade and Commerce

  Opening statement Stephen S. Poloz Standing Senate Committee on Banking, Trade and Commerce Ottawa, Ontario

  Good afternoon, Mr. Chairman and committee members. Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins and I are pleased to be with you today to discuss the Bank’s Monetary Policy Report. At the time of our last appearance in April, our message was about the considerable economic progress that we had seen. We explained that after a lacklustre start […]

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Opening statements Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Monetary policy, Monetary policy transmission, Recent economic and financial developments

• Assessing Vulnerabilities in Emerging-Market Economies

  Staff Discussion Paper 2018-13 Tatjana Dahlhaus, Alexander Lam

  This paper introduces a new tool to monitor economic and financial vulnerabilities in emerging-market economies. We obtain vulnerability indexes for several early warning indicators covering 26 emerging markets from 1990 to 2017 and use them to monitor the evolution of vulnerabilities before, during and after an economic or financial crisis.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): International topics, Monetary and financial indicators, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): C, C8, C82, F, F3, F34, G, G0, G01, G1, G15
• October 30, 2018

  Opening Statement before the House of Commons Standing Committee on Finance

  Opening statement Stephen S. Poloz House of Commons Standing Committee on Finance Ottawa, Ontario

  Good afternoon, Mr. Chairman and committee members. Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins and I are pleased to be with you today to discuss the Bank’s Monetary Policy Report. At the time of our last appearance in April, our message was about the considerable economic progress that we had seen. We explained that after a lacklustre start […]

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Opening statements Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Monetary policy, Monetary policy transmission, Recent economic and financial developments

• Characterizing the Canadian Financial Cycle with Frequency Filtering Approaches

  Staff Analytical Note 2018-34 Andrew Lee-Poy

  In this note, I use two multivariate frequency filtering approaches to characterize the Canadian financial cycle by capturing fluctuations in the underlying variables with respect to a long-term trend. The first approach is a dynamically weighted composite, and the second is a stochastic cycle model.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial stability, Monetary and financial indicators, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): C, C0, C01, C1, C13, C14, C18, C3, C32, C5, C51, C52, E, E3, E32, E6, E66, G, G0, G01, G1, G18

• Multibank Holding Companies and Bank Stability

  Staff Working Paper 2018-51 Radoslav Raykov, Consuelo Silva-Buston

  This paper studies the relationship between bank holding company affiliation and the individual and systemic risk of banks. Using the 2005 hurricane season in the US as an exogenous shock to bank balance sheets, we show that banks that are part of a holding parent company are more resilient than independent banks.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial stability JEL Code(s): G, G1, G2
• October 25, 2018

  Money for Nothing? A Central Banker’s Take on Cryptoassets

  Presentation Carolyn A. Wilkins Princeton University Princeton, New Jersey

  Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn A. Wilkins discusses cryptoassets and the key questions they pose for central banks.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Presentations Topic(s): Digital currencies and fintech
• October 24, 2018

  Monetary Policy Report Press Conference Opening Statement

  Opening statement Carolyn A. Wilkins

  Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn A. Wilkins discusses key issues involved in the Governing Council’s deliberations about the policy rate decision and the MPR.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Opening statements
• October 24, 2018

  Bank of Canada increases overnight rate target to 1 ¾ per cent

  Media Relations Ottawa, Ontario

  The Bank of Canada today increased its target for the overnight rate to 1 ¾ per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 2 per cent and the deposit rate is 1 ½ per cent.

  Content Type(s): Press, Press releases