Posts

• April 18, 2018

  Monetary Policy Report – April 2018

  

  The Bank’s new forecast calls for economic growth of 2.0 percent this year, 2.1 per cent in 2019 and 1.8 per cent in 2020.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Monetary Policy Report

• Potential Output in Canada: 2018 Reassessment

  Staff Analytical Note 2018-10 Andrew Agopsowicz, Dany Brouillette, Bassirou Gueye, Julien McDonald-Guimond, Jeffrey Mollins, Youngmin Park

  This note summarizes the reassessment of potential output, conducted by the Bank of Canada for the April 2018 Monetary Policy Report. Overall, the profile for potential output growth is expected to remain flat at 1.8 per cent between 2018 and 2020 and 1.9 per cent in 2021.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Labour markets, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E0, E00, E2, E22, E23, E24, E3, E37, E6

• Assessing Global Potential Output Growth: April 2018

  Staff Analytical Note 2018-9 Richard Beard, Anne-Katherine Cormier, Michael Francis, Katerina Gribbin, Justin-Damien Guénette, Christopher Hajzler, James Ketcheson, Kun Mo, Louis Poirier, Peter Selcuk, Kristina Hess

  This note presents our estimates of potential output growth for the global economy through 2020. Overall, we expect global potential output growth to remain broadly stable over the projection horizon, averaging 3.3 per cent, although there is considerable uncertainty surrounding these estimates.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): International topics, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E1, E10, E2, E20, O, O4
• April 9, 2018

  Release of the 2017 Bank of Canada FMI Oversight Activities Annual Report

  The Bank of Canada today published the 2017 annual report on its oversight of payment clearing and settlement systems, which are also known as financial market infrastructures or FMIs.

  Content Type(s): Press, Market notices

• Personal Experiences and House Price Expectations: Evidence from the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations

  Staff Analytical Note 2018-8 Mikael Khan, Matthieu Verstraete

  In this work, we use novel Canadian survey data to study how expectations of future changes in house prices are influenced by personal experiences. We find that recently experienced changes in local house prices are routinely extrapolated into expectations of year-ahead changes in national house prices.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Financial stability, Housing
• April 9, 2018

  Business Outlook Survey - Spring 2018

  Results of the spring Business Outlook Survey suggest that business sentiment continues to be positive, supported by healthy sales prospects. Due to recent strong demand, capacity and labour pressures are evident in most regions.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Business Outlook Survey
• April 9, 2018

  Senior Loan Officer Survey - First Quarter of 2018

  This quarter, the Bank will begin reporting on both household and business lending conditions in our expanded Senior Loan Officer Survey. Overall, household lending conditions tightened in the first quarter of 2018, driven by mortgage-related lending, while business lending conditions eased slightly.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Senior Loan Officer Survey

• Could a Higher Inflation Target Enhance Macroeconomic Stability?

  Staff Working Paper 2018-17 José Dorich, Nicholas Labelle, Vadym Lepetyuk, Rhys R. Mendes

  Recent international experience with the effective lower bound on nominal interest rates has rekindled interest in the benefits of inflation targets above 2 per cent. We evaluate whether an increase in the inflation target to 3 or 4 per cent could improve macroeconomic stability in the Canadian economy.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models, Inflation targets, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E37, E4, E43, E5, E52

• Order Flow Segmentation, Liquidity and Price Discovery: The Role of Latency Delays

  Staff Working Paper 2018-16 Michael Brolley, David Cimon

  Latency delays—known as “speed bumps”—are an intentional slowing of order flow by exchanges. Supporters contend that delays protect market makers from high-frequency arbitrage, while opponents warn that delays promote “quote fading” by market makers. We construct a model of informed trading in a fragmented market, where one market operates a conventional order book and the other imposes a latency delay on market orders.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial markets, Financial system regulation and policies, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): G, G1, G14, G18