Staff research, Publications
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Low Inflation in Advanced Economies: Facts and Drivers
Since the global financial crisis, core inflation has been persistently below target in most advanced economies. Recently, it has weakened further in several advanced economies despite gradually diminishing slack. This note reviews recent developments in core inflation across advanced economies and identifies distinctive patterns across regions. -
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Complementing the Credit Risk Assessment of Financial Counterparties with Market-Based Indicators
The Bank’s internal credit risk assessment abilities are regularly enhanced. In this note, we present a recent innovation that extends the set of market-based indicators used in the credit risk assessment of financial counterparties. -
Can the Canadian International Investment Position Stabilize a Slowing Economy?
In this note, we find that valuation effects can act as an important stabilizer, strengthening Canada’s net external wealth when its economic outlook worsens relative to that of other countries. -
October 16, 2017
Business Outlook Survey - Autumn 2017
Results from the autumn Business Outlook Survey point to continued positive business sentiment across the country, with business activity becoming entrenched. Firms’ prospects remain healthy, although several survey indicators have moderated from the strong summer results. -
October 16, 2017
Senior Loan Officer Survey - Third Quarter of 2017
Survey results point to nearly unchanged overall business-lending conditions in the third quarter. This is the fifth consecutive quarter of unchanged overall conditions. -
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Measuring Limits of Arbitrage in Fixed-Income Markets
We use relative value to measure limits to arbitrage in fixed-income markets. Relative value captures apparent deviations from no-arbitrage relationships. It is simple, intuitive and can be computed model-free for any bond. -
The Mode is the Message: Using Predata as Exclusion Restrictions to Evaluate Survey Design
Changes in survey mode (e.g., online, offline) may influence the values of survey responses, and may be particularly problematic when comparing repeated cross-sectional surveys.