Posts

• Cash Versus Card: Payment Discontinuities and the Burden of Holding Coins

  Staff Working Paper 2017-47 Heng Chen, Kim Huynh, Oz Shy

  Cash is the preferred method of payment for small value transactions generally less than $25. We provide insight to this finding with a new theoretical model that characterizes and compares consumers’ costs of paying with cash to paying with cards for each transaction.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Bank notes, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): D, D0, D03, E, E4, E42

• On the Tail Risk Premium in the Oil Market

  Staff Working Paper 2017-46 Reinhard Ellwanger

  This paper shows that changes in market participants’ fear of rare events implied by crude oil options contribute to oil price volatility and oil return predictability. Using 25 years of historical data, we document economically large tail risk premia that vary substantially over time and significantly forecast crude oil futures and spot returns.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial markets JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, C58, D, D8, D84, E, E4, E44, G, G1, G12, G13, Q, Q4, Q43
• November 16, 2017

  Factors Behind the 2014 Oil Price Decline

  Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2017 Reinhard Ellwanger, Benjamin Sawatzky, Konrad Zmitrowicz

  Oil prices have declined sharply over the past three years. While both supply and demand factors played a role in the large oil price decline of 2014, global supply growth seems to have been the predominant force. The most important drivers were likely the surprising growth of US shale oil production, the output decisions of the Organization of the Petro-leum Exporting Countries and the weaker-than-expected global growth that followed the 2009 global financial crisis.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, International topics, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): Q, Q4, Q41, Q43
• November 16, 2017

  Acceptance and Use of Payments at the Point of Sale in Canada

  Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2017 Ben Fung, Kim Huynh, Anneke Kosse

  Merchants universally accept cash. Consumers widely hold cash but also carry debit and credit cards. The cost of using a method of payment has only a small influence on which method consumers use. Large merchants accept all payments, while only two-thirds of small and medium-sized businesses accept credit cards. Merchants report that credit cards are the costliest payment method compared with cash and debit cards. However, costs are not the only consideration. Merchant acceptance of credit accounts for the many con-sumers that want to use credit cards. This interaction between consumers and merchants is known as network externalities.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Bank notes, Digital currencies and fintech, Financial institutions, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): D, D2, D23, D24, E, E4, E41, E42, G, G2, G21, L, L2
• November 16, 2017

  An Update on the Neutral Rate of Interest

  Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2017 José Dorich, Abeer Reza, Subrata Sarker

  The neutral rate serves as a benchmark for measuring monetary stimulus and provides a medium- to long-run anchor for the real policy rate. Global neutral rate estimates have been falling over the past few decades. Factors such as population aging, high corporate savings, and low trend productivity growth are likely to continue supporting a low global neutral rate. These global factors as well as domestic factors are exerting downward pres-sure on the Canadian real neutral rate, which is estimated to be between 0.5 to 1.5 per cent. This low neutral rate has important implications for monetary policy and financial stability.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Interest rates, International topics, Potential output, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, E5, E52, E58, F, F0, F01, F4, F43, O, O4
• November 16, 2017

  An Initial Assessment of Changes to the Bank of Canada’s Framework for Market Operations

  Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2017 Kaetlynd McRae, Sean Durr, David Manzo

  The Bank of Canada made changes to several of the tools that make up its framework for operations and liquidity provision. These changes came about after a comprehensive re-view of the framework and are designed to help the Bank better achieve its objectives of reinforcing the target for the overnight rate and supporting the well-functioning of Cana-dian financial markets under normal market conditions.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Financial markets, Financial stability, Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy implementation, Monetary policy transmission, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): E, E4, E42, E44, E5, E52, E58, G, G0, G01, G1, G18
• November 16, 2017

  Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2017

  

  Is shale oil production in the United States a factor in the 2014 oil price decline? Which methods of payment are commonly accepted by merchants in Canada? Bank researchers share their insights on these topics. They also provide an update on the neutral rate of interest as well as on changes to the Bank’s operational framework for market operations.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review
• November 15, 2017

  Uncertainty can affect monetary policy actions, says Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins

  Media Relations New York, New York

  Uncertainty is an important consideration for monetary policy decisions and, depending on the circumstances, it can prompt central banks to be more, or less, aggressive, Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn A. Wilkins told the Money Marketeers of New York University in a speech today. “Central bankers have well-established methods to deal with uncertainty in the conduct […]

  Content Type(s): Press, Press releases
• November 15, 2017

  Embracing Uncertainty in the Conduct of Monetary Policy

  Remarks Carolyn A. Wilkins Money Marketeers of New York University New York, New York

  Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn A. Wilkins explains how uncertainty is factored into monetary policy decisions.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Central bank research, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Monetary policy implementation, Monetary policy transmission
• November 15, 2017

  Bank of Canada and Bank of Korea sign currency swap agreement

  Media Relations Ottawa, Ontario

  The Bank of Canada and the Bank of Korea today announced a standing bilateral liquidity swap arrangement, effective immediately.

  Content Type(s): Press, Press releases