Staff analytical notes

• Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity, Inflation and Unemployment: New Evidence Using Micro‐Level Data

  Staff Analytical Note 2017-6 Dany Brouillette, Natalia Kyui

  Recent evidence suggests that the extent of downward nominal wage rigidity (DNWR) in the Canadian labour market has risen following the 2008–09 recession (see Brouillette, Kostyshyna and Kyui 2016).

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Inflation and prices, Labour markets JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, E3, E31, J, J3, J30

• April 2017 Annual Reassessment of Potential Output Growth in Canada

  Staff Analytical Note 2017-5 Andrew Agopsowicz, Bassirou Gueye, Natalia Kyui, Youngmin Park, Mohanad Salameh, Ben Tomlin

  This note summarizes the Bank of Canada’s annual reassessment of potential output growth, conducted for the April 2017 Monetary Policy Report. Potential output growth is projected to increase from 1.3 per cent in 2017 to 1.6 per cent by 2020.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Labour markets, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E0, E00, E2, E22, E23, E24, E3, E37, E6

• A Canada-US Comparison of Labour Market Conditions

  Staff Analytical Note 2017-4 Dany Brouillette, Katerina Gribbin, Justin-Damien Guénette, James Ketcheson, Olena Kostyshyna, Jonathan Lachaine, Colin Scarffe

  In this note, we provide a brief comparison of the recent developments in the labour markets in Canada and the United States. Our analysis indicates that slack remains in the Canadian labour market, while the US labour market is close to full employment.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Labour markets, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, J, J2, J21, J22, J23

• Assessing Global Potential Output Growth

  Staff Analytical Note 2017-3 Patrick Alexander, Michael Francis, Christopher Hajzler, Patrick Kirby, Louis Poirier, Sri Thanabalasingam, Kristina Hess

  This note estimates potential output growth for the global economy through 2019. While there is considerable uncertainty surrounding our estimates, overall we expect global potential output growth to rise modestly, from 3.1 per cent in 2016 to 3.4 per cent in 2019.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): International topics, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E1, E10, E2, E20, O, O4

• What Explains the Recent Increase in Canadian Corporate Bond Spreads

  Staff Analytical Note 2017-2 Maxime Leboeuf, James Pinnington

  The spread between the yield of a corporate bond and the yield of a similar Government of Canada bond reflects compensation for possible default by the issuing firm and compensation for additional risks beyond default.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Financial markets JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12

• The Share of Systematic Variations in the Canadian Dollar—Part II

  Staff Analytical Note 2017-1 Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, Guillaume Nolin

  This analytical note examines how much of the systematic variation in the Canadian dollar is attributable to its sensitivity to commodity prices. We introduce a new “oil” portfolio that captures systematic variations when the exchange rates of commodity exporters and commodity importers move in opposite directions.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Exchange rates JEL Code(s): F, F3, F31