Staff research, Publications
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November 29, 2017
Quarterly Financial Report - Third Quarter 2017
Quarterly Financial Report - Third Quarter 2017 - For the period ended September 30, 2017
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November 28, 2017
Shoring Up the Foundations for a More Resilient Banking System: The Development of Basel III
The authors trace the development of the Basel III standards for banking regulation. Basel III builds on two earlier frameworks, in response to weaknesses revealed during the global financial crisis. They highlight how implementation of the standards will underpin greater financial stability and provide a sound foundation for economic growth. -
November 28, 2017
Analysis of Household Vulnerabilities Using Loan-Level Mortgage Data
This report examines detailed data on home mortgages to provide a better understanding of the vulnerabilities associated with the mortgage market. The proportion of low-ratio mortgages is growing, particularly in regions with strong house price growth. Moreover, these borrowers exhibit less flexibility to adverse shocks, since they have high debt levels relative to income and have taken mortgages with long amortization periods. -
November 28, 2017
Financial System Review - November 2017
This issue of the Financial System Review reflects the Bank’s judgment that the high level of household indebtedness and housing market imbalances remain the most important vulnerabilities. While these vulnerabilities are still elevated, improving economic conditions and recent changes to housing policy should support an easing of these vulnerabilities over time. A third vulnerability highlighted in the FSR concerns cyber threats and the interconnectedness of the financial system. -
The Impacts of Monetary Policy Statements
In this note, we find that market participants react to an unexpected change in the tone of Canadian monetary policy statements. When the market perceives that the Bank of Canada plans to tighten (or alternatively, loosen) the monetary policy earlier than previously expected, the Canadian dollar appreciates (or depreciates) and long-term Government of Canada bond yields increase (or decrease). The tone of a statement is particularly relevant to the market when the policy rate has been unchanged for some time. -
Identifying the Degree of Collusion Under Proportional Reduction
Proportional reduction is a common cartel practice in which cartel members reduce their output proportionately. We develop a method to quantify this reduction relative to a benchmark market equilibrium scenario and relate the reduction to the traditional conduct parameter. -
Is the Discretionary Income Effect of Oil Price Shocks a Hoax?
The transmission of oil price shocks has been a question of central interest in macroeconomics since the 1970s. There has been renewed interest in this question after the large and persistent fall in the real price of oil in 2014–16. In the context of this debate, Ramey (2017) makes the striking claim that the existing literature on the transmission of oil price shocks is fundamentally confused about the question of how to quantify the effect of oil price shocks. -
Product Sophistication and the Slowdown in Chinese Export Growth
Chinese real export growth decelerated considerably during the last decade. This paper argues that the slowdown largely resulted from China moving to a more sophisticated mix of exports: China produced more sophisticated goods over which it had pricing power instead of producing greater volumes of less sophisticated products. -
Evaluating Real GDP Growth Forecasts in the Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report
This paper examines the quality of projections of real GDP growth taken from the Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report (MPR) since they were first published in 1997. Over the last decade, it has become common practice among the central banking community to discuss forecast performance publicly.