Staff analytical notes

• Low Inflation in Advanced Economies: Facts and Drivers

  Staff Analytical Note 2017-16 Sanjana Bhatnagar, Anne-Katherine Cormier, Patrisha de Leon-Manlagnit, Elise Martin, Vikram Rai, Renaud St-Cyr, Subrata Sarker, Kristina Hess

  Since the global financial crisis, core inflation has been persistently below target in most advanced economies. Recently, it has weakened further in several advanced economies despite gradually diminishing slack. This note reviews recent developments in core inflation across advanced economies and identifies distinctive patterns across regions.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Inflation and prices, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E0, E3, E31, F, F0

• Complementing the Credit Risk Assessment of Financial Counterparties with Market-Based Indicators

  Staff Analytical Note 2017-15 Guillaume Ouellet Leblanc, Maarten van Oordt

  The Bank’s internal credit risk assessment abilities are regularly enhanced. In this note, we present a recent innovation that extends the set of market-based indicators used in the credit risk assessment of financial counterparties.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Credit risk management, Financial institutions JEL Code(s): G, G1, G10, G2, G24

• Can the Canadian International Investment Position Stabilize a Slowing Economy?

  Staff Analytical Note 2017-14 Maxime Leboeuf, Chen Fan

  In this note, we find that valuation effects can act as an important stabilizer, strengthening Canada’s net external wealth when its economic outlook worsens relative to that of other countries.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Balance of payments and components, International financial markets JEL Code(s): F, F2, F21, F3, F32

• Redistributive Effects of a Change in the Inflation Target

  Staff Analytical Note 2017-13 Robert Amano, Thomas J. Carter, Yaz Terajima

  In light of the financial crisis and its aftermath, several economists have argued that inflation-targeting central banks should reconsider the level of their inflation targets. While the appropriate level for the inflation target remains an open question, it’s important to note that any transition to a new target would entail certain costs.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Inflation targets, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E58

• A Dynamic Factor Model for Commodity Prices

  Staff Analytical Note 2017-12 Doga Bilgin, Reinhard Ellwanger

  In this note, we present the Commodities Factor Model (CFM), a dynamic factor model for a large cross-section of energy and non-energy commodity prices. The model decomposes price changes in commodities into a common “global” component, a “block” component confined to subgroups of economically related commodities and an idiosyncratic price shock component.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): C, C5, C51, Q, Q0, Q02

• Do Canadian Broker-Dealers Act as Agents or Principals in Bond Trading?

  Staff Analytical Note 2017-11 Daniel Hyun, Jesse Johal, Corey Garriott

  Technology, risk tolerance and regulation may influence dealers to reduce their trading as principals (using their own balance sheets for sales and purchases of securities) in favour of agency trading (matching client trades).

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial markets, Financial system regulation and policies, Market structure and pricing, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): G, G1, G14, G2, G20, L, L1

• Has Liquidity in Canadian Government Bond Markets Deteriorated?

  Staff Analytical Note 2017-10 Sermin Gungor, Jun Yang

  This note presents measures of liquidity used by the Bank of Canada to monitor market conditions and discusses recent trends in Government of Canada (GoC) fixed-income market liquidity. Our results indicate that the Bank’s measures have improved since the financial crisis. Furthermore, GoC market liquidity deteriorated following several stressful events: the euro crisis in 2011, the taper tantrum in 2013 and the oil price shock in 2015. In all three cases, the deterioration remained within historical norms and liquidity returned to normal levels afterwards.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Financial markets JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12, G14

• Labour Force Participation: A Comparison of the United States and Canada

  Staff Analytical Note 2017-9 James Ketcheson, Natalia Kyui, Benoit Vincent

  This note explores the drivers behind the recent increase in the US participation rate in the labour market and assesses the likelihood of a similar gain in Canada. The growth in the US participation rate has largely been due to a pickup in the participation of prime-age workers following a post-recession decline.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Labour markets, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, J, J2, J21

• Wage Growth in Canada and the United States: Factors Behind Recent Weakness

  Staff Analytical Note 2017-8 Dany Brouillette, James Ketcheson, Olena Kostyshyna, Jonathan Lachaine

  This note examines the relatively subdued pace of wage growth in Canada since the commodity price decline in 2014 and assesses whether the weakness is attributable to cyclical (e.g., labour market slack) or structural factors (e.g., resource reallocation and demographic change).

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Labour markets, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, J, J3, J30

• A Structural Interpretation of the Recent Weakness in Business Investment

  Staff Analytical Note 2017-7 Russell Barnett, Rhys R. Mendes

  Since 2012, business investment growth has slowed considerably in advanced economies, averaging a little less than 2 per cent versus the 4 per cent growth rates experienced in the period leading up to crisis. Several recent studies have attributed a large part of the weakness in business investment to cyclical factors, including soft aggregate demand, and, to a lesser degree, heightened uncertainty and tighter financial conditions.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Domestic demand and components, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): E, E2, E22, E3, E37