Posts

• September 27, 2017

  Monetary policy data dependent given unknowns in inflation outlook, Bank of Canada Governor Poloz says

  Media Relations St. John's, Newfoundland and Labrador

  The Bank of Canada’s approach to monetary policy has become particularly data dependent, because of significant unknowns around the inflation outlook as the Canadian economy nears its potential, Governor Stephen S. Poloz said today.

  Content Type(s): Press, Press releases

• What’s Up with Unit Non-Response in the Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey? The Effect of Staff Tenure

  Staff Discussion Paper 2017-11 Sarah Miller, David Amirault, Laurent Martin

  Since 1997, the Bank of Canada’s regional offices have been conducting the Business Outlook Survey (BOS), a quarterly survey of business conditions. Survey responses are gathered through face-to-face, confidential consultations with a sample of private sector firms representative of the various sectors, firm sizes and regions across Canada.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Firm dynamics, Regional economic developments JEL Code(s): C, C2, C21, C8, C81, D, D2, D22

• A Dynamic Factor Model for Commodity Prices

  Staff Analytical Note 2017-12 Doga Bilgin, Reinhard Ellwanger

  In this note, we present the Commodities Factor Model (CFM), a dynamic factor model for a large cross-section of energy and non-energy commodity prices. The model decomposes price changes in commodities into a common “global” component, a “block” component confined to subgroups of economically related commodities and an idiosyncratic price shock component.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): C, C5, C51, Q, Q0, Q02

• Changes in Monetary Regimes and the Identification of Monetary Policy Shocks: Narrative Evidence from Canada

  Staff Working Paper 2017-39 Julien Champagne, Rodrigo Sekkel

  We use narrative evidence along with a novel database of real-time data and forecasts from the Bank of Canada's staff economic projections from 1974 to 2015 to construct a new measure of monetary policy shocks and estimate the effects of monetary policy in Canada.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Central bank research, Econometric and statistical methods, Exchange rate regimes, Inflation and prices, Inflation targets, Interest rates, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E32, E4, E43, E5, E52, E58
• September 22, 2017

  Weekly Financial Statistics - 22 September 2017

  Content Type(s): Publications, Historical: Weekly Financial Statistics
• September 21, 2017

  Debt Management Strategy Consultations – 2018-19

  The Department of Finance and the Bank of Canada are seeking views of Government Securities Distributors, institutional investors, and other interested parties on issues related to the design and operation of the Government of Canada’s domestic debt program for 2018-19 and beyond.

  Content Type(s): Press, Market notices
• September 21, 2017

  4th Bank of Canada-Bank of Spain Workshop on International Financial Markets

  Workshop held on September 21, 2017.

  Content Type(s): Conferences and workshops

• A Counterfactual Valuation of the Stock Index as a Predictor of Crashes

  Staff Working Paper 2017-38 Tom Roberts

  Stock market fundamentals would not seem to meaningfully predict returns over a shorter-term horizon—instead, I shift focus to severe downside risk (i.e., crashes).

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing, Financial stability JEL Code(s): G, G0, G01, G1, G12, G17, G19

• Aggregate Fluctuations and the Role of Trade Credit

  Staff Working Paper 2017-37 Lin Shao

  In an economy where production takes place in multiple stages and is subject to financial frictions, how firms finance intermediate inputs matters for aggregate outcomes. This paper focuses on trade credit—the lending and borrowing of input goods between firms—and quantifies its aggregate impacts during the Great Recession.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Credit and credit aggregates, Firm dynamics JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E4, E44, E5, E51
• September 18, 2017

  Build a Bank Note: Classroom Resource for Teachers

  Teach your students about Canada’s history, land and culture – with money! Download the free lesson plan.