Staff research

• On the Nexus of Monetary Policy and Financial Stability: Effectiveness of Macroprudential Tools in Building Resilience and Mitigating Financial Imbalances

  Staff Discussion Paper 2016-11 H. Evren Damar, Miguel Molico

  This paper reviews the Canadian and international evidence of the effectiveness of macroprudential policy measures in building resilience and mitigating financial imbalances. The analysis concludes that these measures have broadly achieved their goal of increasing the overall resilience of the financial system to the buildup of imbalances and increasing the financial system’s ability to withstand adverse shocks.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies JEL Code(s): E, E5, E51, E58, G, G1, G18, G2, G28

• What Are the Macroeconomic Effects of High-Frequency Uncertainty Shocks

  Staff Working Paper 2016-25 Laurent Ferrara, Pierre Guérin

  This paper evaluates the effects of high-frequency uncertainty shocks on a set of low-frequency macroeconomic variables that are representative of the U.S. economy. Rather than estimating models at the same common low-frequency, we use recently developed econometric models, which allows us to deal with data of different sampling frequencies.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, E, E3, E32, E4, E44

• Housing and Tax-Deferred Retirement Accounts

  Staff Working Paper 2016-24 Anson T. Y. Ho, Jie Zhou

  Assets in tax-deferred retirement accounts (TDA) and housing are two major components of household portfolios. In this paper, we develop a life-cycle model to examine the interaction between households’ use of TDA and their housing decisions.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models, Housing JEL Code(s): C, C6, C61, D, D1, D14, D9, D91, E, E2, E21, H, H2, H24, R, R2, R21

• Identification and Estimation of Risk Aversion in First-Price Auctions with Unobserved Auction Heterogeneity

  Staff Working Paper 2016-23 Serafin Grundl, Yu Zhu

  This paper shows point identification in first-price auction models with risk aversion and unobserved auction heterogeneity by exploiting multiple bids from each auction and variation in the number of bidders. The required exclusion restriction is shown to be consistent with a large class of entry models.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C1, C14, C5, C57, D, D4, D44, L, L0, L00

• Estimating Systematic Risk Under Extremely Adverse Market Conditions

  Staff Working Paper 2016-22 Maarten van Oordt, Chen Zhou

  This paper considers the problem of estimating a linear model between two heavy-tailed variables if the explanatory variable has an extremely low (or high) value. We propose an estimator for the model coefficient by exploiting the tail dependence between the two variables and prove its asymptotic properties.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial markets JEL Code(s): C, C1, C14, G, G0, G01
• April 30, 2016

  Research Update - April 2016

  This monthly newsletter features the latest research publications by Bank of Canada economists including external publications and working papers published on the Bank of Canada’s website.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Research newsletters

• Early Warning of Financial Stress Events: A Credit-Regime-Switching Approach

  Staff Working Paper 2016-21 Fuchun Li, Hongyu Xiao

  We propose an early warning model for predicting the likelihood of a financial stress event for a given future time, and examine whether credit plays an important role in the model as a non-linear propagator of shocks.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial stability JEL Code(s): C, C1, C12, C14, G, G0, G01, G1, G17

• Retail Order Flow Segmentation

  Staff Working Paper 2016-20 Corey Garriott, Adrian Walton

  In August 2012, the New York Stock Exchange launched the Retail Liquidity Program (RLP), a trading facility that enables participating organizations to quote dark limit orders executable only by retail traders.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial markets, Financial system regulation and policies, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): G, G1, G14, G2, G20, L, L1, L10

• What to Expect When China Liberalizes Its Capital Account

  Staff Discussion Paper 2016-10 Mark Kruger, Gurnain Pasricha

  When China joined the World Trade Organization in December 2001, it marked a watershed for the world economy. Ten years from now, the opening of China’s capital account and the financial integration that will unfold will be viewed as a milestone of similar importance.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Balance of payments and components, Exchange rate regimes, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F3, F31, F32, G, G1, G18

• Should Monetary Policy Lean Against Housing Market Booms?

  Staff Working Paper 2016-19 Sami Alpanda, Alexander Ueberfeldt

  Should monetary policy lean against housing market booms? We approach this question using a small-scale, regime-switching New Keynesian model, where housing market crashes arrive with a logit probability that depends on the level of household debt.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models, Financial stability, Housing, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, E5, E52, G, G0, G01