G - Financial Economics

• Leaning Within a Flexible Inflation-Targeting Framework: Review of Costs and Benefits

  Staff Discussion Paper 2016-17 Denis Gorea, Oleksiy Kryvtsov, Tamon Takamura

  This note examines the merits of monetary policy adjustments in response to financial stability concerns, taking into account changes in the state of knowledge since the renewal of the inflation-targeting agreement in 2011. A key financial system vulnerability in Canada is elevated household indebtedness: as more and more households are nearing their debt-capacity limits, the likelihood and severity of a large negative correction in housing markets are also increasing.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Financial stability, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E0, E4, E44, E5, E52, E58, G, G1, G18

• Assessment of the Effects of Macroprudential Tightening in Canada

  Staff Analytical Note 2016-12 Martin Kuncl

  During the period of 2008 to 2012, the rules for government-backed mortgage insurance were tightened on four occasions. In this note, we estimate the effects through a simple econometric exercise using a vector error-correction model (VECM).

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Financial system regulation and policies, Housing JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, E, E6, E65, G, G2, G28

• Are Counterparty Arrangements in Reinsurance a Threat to Financial Stability?

  Staff Working Paper 2016-39 Matt Davison, Darrell Leadbetter, Bin Lu, Jane Voll

  Interconnectedness among insurers and reinsurers at a global level is not well understood and may pose a significant risk to the sector, with implications for the macroeconomy. Models of the complex interactions among reinsurers and with other participants in the financial system and the real economy are at a very early stage of development.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial services, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies JEL Code(s): C, C6, C63, G, G1, G10, G15, G18, G2, G22, G28

• Credit Risk and Collateral Demand in a Retail Payment System

  Staff Discussion Paper 2016-16 Héctor Pérez Saiz, Gabriel Xerri

  The recent financial crisis has led to the development of new regulations to control risk in designated payment systems, and the implementation of new credit risk management standards is one of the key issues. In this paper, we study various credit risk management schemes for the Canadian retail payment system (ACSS) that are designed to cover the exposure of a defaulting member.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial stability, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): C, C5, C58, G, G2, G21, G23

• Time-Varying Crash Risk: The Role of Stock Market Liquidity

  Staff Working Paper 2016-35 Peter Christoffersen, Bruno Feunou, Yoontae Jeon, Chayawat Ornthanalai

  We estimate a continuous-time model with stochastic volatility and dynamic crash probability for the S&P 500 index and find that market illiquidity dominates other factors in explaining the stock market crash risk. While the crash probability is time-varying, its dynamic depends only weakly on return variance once we include market illiquidity as an economic variable in the model.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial stability JEL Code(s): G, G0, G01, G1, G12

• International Banking and Cross-Border Effects of Regulation: Lessons from Canada

  Staff Working Paper 2016-34 H. Evren Damar, Adi Mordel

  We study how changes in prudential requirements affect cross-border lending of Canadian banks by utilizing an index that aggregates adjustments in key regulatory instruments across jurisdictions.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies JEL Code(s): F, F3, F34, G, G0, G01, G2, G21

• The Role of Central Banks in Promoting Financial Stability: An International Perspective

  Staff Discussion Paper 2016-15 Rose Cunningham, Christian Friedrich

  The 2007–09 global financial crisis has led policy-makers around the world, including central banks, to refocus their efforts to promote financial stability. As part of this process, central banks became quite active in supporting financial stability in a variety of ways, such as publicly sharing their assessments of financial system vulnerabilities and risks and helping to strengthen regulation, supervision and macroprudential measures.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies JEL Code(s): E, E5, G, G0, G01, G2, G28

• Global Macro Risks in Currency Excess Returns

  Staff Working Paper 2016-32 Kimberly Berg, Nelson C. Mark

  We study a cross section of carry-trade-generated currency excess returns in terms of their exposure to global fundamental macroeconomic risk.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing, Exchange rates, Interest rates JEL Code(s): E, E2, E21, E4, E43, F, F3, F31, G, G1, G12

• Financial Inclusion—What’s it Worth?

  Staff Working Paper 2016-30 Miguel Ampudia, Michael Ehrmann

  The paper studies the determinants of being unbanked in the euro area and the United States as well as the effects of being unbanked on wealth accumulation. Based on household-level data from The Eurosystem Household Finance and Consumption Survey and the U.S. Survey of Consumer Finances, it first documents that there are, respectively, 3.6 per cent and 7.5 per cent of unbanked households in the two economies.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial services, Financial system regulation and policies, Housing JEL Code(s): D, D1, D14, G, G2, G21, G28

• Implementing Market-Based Indicators to Monitor Vulnerabilities of Financial Institutions

  Staff Analytical Note 2016-5 Cameron MacDonald, Maarten van Oordt, Robin Scott

  This note introduces several market-based indicators and examines how they can further inform the Bank of Canada’s vulnerability assessment of Canadian financial institutions. Market-based indicators of leverage suggest that the solvency risk for major Canadian banks has increased since the beginning of the oil-price correction in the second half of 2014.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial stability JEL Code(s): G, G1, G10, G2, G21